FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade du Moustoir
Referee: B. Millot
Lorient
Match Timeline
Strasbourg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Lucas Høgsberg
Strasbourg
26'
N. Cadiou · Assist: P. Katseris
Lorient
54'
P. Pagis
Lorient
62'
S. Nanasi · Assist: R. Luis
Strasbourg
🔄
65'
I. Doukoure ↔ A. Omobamidele
Strasbourg
🔄
67'
J. Enciso ↔ M. Godo
Strasbourg
🔄
67'
S. El Mourabet ↔ A. Ouattara
Strasbourg
🔄
69'
B. Dieng ↔ A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
70'
L. Abergel ↔ A. Avom
Lorient
🟨
71'
Panos Katseris
Lorient
🟨
73'
Maxi Oyedele
Strasbourg
🔄
76'
J. Mwanga ↔ D. Moreira
Strasbourg
🔄
82'
P. Pagis ↔ D. Karim
Lorient
🔄
82'
J. Makengo ↔ S. Soumano
Lorient
🔄
85'
P. Katseris ↔ Igor Silva
Lorient
🔄
85'
G. Yassine ↔ E. Emegha
Strasbourg
90'
N. Adjei
Strasbourg
90'
A. Omobamidele
Strasbourg

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Lorient Win 39.9%
Draw 21.5%
Strasbourg Win 38.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.38
Strasbourg1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lorient Lorient
WWDLW
52 GF / 45 GA
Strasbourg Strasbourg
WLDWL
80 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
17
BTTS Yes
28
14
Over 2.5
29
4.12
Shots on Goal
5.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lorient Lorient 34 matches
Strasbourg Strasbourg 46 matches
Lorient Statistic Strasbourg
13 Wins 24
12 Draws 10
9 Losses 12
52 Goals For 80
45 Goals Against 53
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
17 BTTS Yes 28
29 Over 1.5 36
14 Over 2.5 29
11 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 9
4.12 Shots On Goal 5.22
12.15 Total Shots 12.57
3.44 Corners 4.28
46.8% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Strasbourg's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Strasbourg. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Strasbourg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Strasbourg having the stronger overall control.

Lorient Analysis

So far, Lorient have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 41 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:44 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (9 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), Sambou Soumano (5 goals), with creative support from Arsène Kouassi (5 assists), Pablo Pagis (3 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Fadiga, M. Talbi, I. Toure unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Strasbourg Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Strasbourg have collected 43 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 46:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Joaquin Panichelli (17 goals), Martial Godo (8 goals), Emmanuel Emegha (4 goals), with creative support from Guéla Doué (6 assists), Diego Moreira (5 assists), Valentín Barco (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with G. Doue, J. Panichelli, A. Anselmino unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 3 times, Strasbourg won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:14 from Lorient's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.5%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 4, Strasbourg 4
H2H summary: Lorient wins 3, draws 4, Strasbourg wins 3
Stats
Lorient Lorient
Strasbourg Strasbourg
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 7
9 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 5
0 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
333 Total passes 529
276 Passes accurate 474
2.28 expected_goals 1.34
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lorient
Formation
Strasbourg
Y. Mvogo
Y. Mvogo
B. Meite
B. Meite
N. Adjei
N. Adjei
A. Faye
A. Faye
P. Katseris
🎯
P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
L. Abergel
A. Kouassi
A. Kouassi
J. Makengo
J. Makengo
P. Pagis
P. Pagis
B. Dieng
B. Dieng
M. Penders
M. Penders
J. Mwanga
J. Mwanga
L. Hogsberg
L. Hogsberg
I. Doukoure
I. Doukoure
M. Oyedele
M. Oyedele
S. Amo-Ameyaw
S. Amo-Ameyaw
R. Luis
🎯
R. Luis
S. El Mourabet
S. El Mourabet
G. Yassine
G. Yassine
S. Nanasi
S. Nanasi
J. Enciso
J. Enciso
Lorient 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
38
Y. Mvogo
G
5
B. Meite
D
32
N. Adjei
⚽ 90'
D
25
A. Faye
D
77
P. Katseris
🎯 26' ↓ 85' 🟨 71'
M
8
N. Cadiou
⚽ 26'
M
6
L. Abergel
↓ 70'
M
43
A. Kouassi
M
17
J. Makengo
↓ 82'
F
10
P. Pagis
⚽ 54' ↓ 82'
F
12
B. Dieng
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
21
B. Kamara
G
2
Igor Silva
↑ 85'
D
29
D. Karim
↑ 82'
M
62
A. Avom
↑ 70'
M
97
S. Siba
D
15
A. Tosin
↑ 69'
F
44
D. Yongwa
D
9
M. Bamba
F
28
S. Soumano
↑ 82'
F
Strasbourg 4-4-1-1
Starting XI
39
M. Penders
G
18
J. Mwanga
↓ 76'
D
24
L. Hogsberg
🟨 25'
D
6
I. Doukoure
↓ 65'
D
8
M. Oyedele
🟨 73'
D
27
S. Amo-Ameyaw
M
83
R. Luis
🎯 62'
M
29
S. El Mourabet
↓ 67'
M
80
G. Yassine
↓ 85'
M
11
S. Nanasi
⚽ 62'
F
19
J. Enciso
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
1
K. Johnsson
G
15
D. D. Fofana
F
10
E. Emegha
↑ 85'
F
7
D. Moreira
↑ 76'
F
20
M. Godo
↑ 67'
F
42
A. Ouattara
↑ 67'
M
3
B. Chilwell
D
2
A. Omobamidele
⚽ 90' ↑ 65'
D
28
T. Noubissie
M
Last matches: Lorient
08.08.26
Fri
Lorient
Angers
1
2
L
04.08.26
Fri
Lorient
UNFP
5
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Guingamp
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Nantes
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Concarneau
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
2
2
D
18.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
22.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
3
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
Last matches: Strasbourg
08.08.26
Fri
Strasbourg
SC Freiburg
0
2
L
04.08.26
Fri
Strasbourg
SV Elversberg
2
5
L
01.08.26
Fri
Strasbourg
Brighton
3
4
L
25.07.26
Fri
Strasbourg
Blackburn
0
2
L
20.07.26
Fri
Strasbourg
Sporting CP
0
7
L
17.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Monaco
5
4
W
13.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Angers
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
03.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Toulouse
1
2
L
30.04.26
UEF
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
22.04.26
Cou
Strasbourg
Nice
0
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Rennes
0
3
L
16.04.26
UEF
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
4
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
0
2
L
04.04.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Nice
3
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Nantes
3
2
W
19.03.26
UEF
Strasbourg
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Paris FC
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Strasbourg
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
H2H: Lorient vs Strasbourg
26.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
14.12.25
H2H
Strasbourg
Lorient
0
0
D
18.02.24
H2H
Strasbourg
Lorient
1
3
W
17.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
1
2
L
03.06.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
1
W
13.11.22
H2H
Strasbourg
Lorient
1
1
D
20.03.22
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
0
0
D
31.10.21
H2H
Strasbourg
Lorient
4
0
L
23.05.21
H2H
Strasbourg
Lorient
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
3
1
W
Last matches: Lorient
04.08.26
Fri
Lorient
UNFP
5
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Nantes
1
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
2
1
W
04.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
07.12.25
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
1
0
W
30.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
1
W
09.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
1
1
D
29.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
19.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
3
3
D
27.09.25
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
30.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
7
L
24.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
4
0
W
H2H at home: Lorient
26.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
17.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
1
2
L
03.06.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
1
W
20.03.22
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
0
0
D
23.08.20
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
3
1
W
Last matches: Strasbourg
08.08.26
Fri
Strasbourg
SC Freiburg
0
2
L
01.08.26
Fri
Strasbourg
Brighton
3
4
L
20.07.26
Fri
Strasbourg
Sporting CP
0
7
L
13.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Angers
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
0
1
L
09.04.26
UEF
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Nantes
3
2
W
12.03.26
UEF
Strasbourg
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
07.03.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Auxerre
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Marseille
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Le Havre
1
2
L
25.01.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Lille
4
1
W
10.01.26
Cou
Strasbourg
Avranches
6
0
W
03.01.26
Lig
Strasbourg
Nice
1
1
D
11.12.25
UEF
Strasbourg
Aberdeen
1
0
W
06.12.25
Lig
Strasbourg
Toulouse
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lig
Strasbourg
Lens
0
1
L
06.11.25
UEF
Strasbourg
BK Hacken
2
1
W
02.11.25
Lig
Strasbourg
Rennes
1
4
L
H2H away: Strasbourg
26.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
W
17.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
1
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
1
L
20.03.22
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
0
0
D
23.08.20
H2H
Lorient
Strasbourg
3
1
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lorient 4 missing
-
B. Fadiga
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
M. Talbi
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
I. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
T. Le Bris
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Strasbourg 4 missing
-
G. Doue
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
J. Panichelli
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Anselmino
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
V. Barco
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT