BRAZIL SERIE B
20.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias
Referee: Luiz Augusto Silveira Tisne

Londrina vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.5%
Odds 2.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.5%
2.62
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
2.38
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.11
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Londrina Win 17%
Draw 5.5%
Fortaleza EC Win 77.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Londrina1.14
Fortaleza EC1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Londrina Londrina
WWDLW
38 GF / 39 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
31 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
15
BTTS Yes
11
18
Over 2.5
9
4
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Londrina Londrina 28 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 28 matches
Londrina Statistic Fortaleza EC
7 Wins 13
7 Draws 9
14 Losses 6
38 Goals For 31
39 Goals Against 23
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
15 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 16
18 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 8
4 Shots On Goal 4.14
13.75 Total Shots 14
5.57 Corners 5.39
46.5% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Londrina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 47 points while Londrina sit 18 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fortaleza EC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Londrina expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Fortaleza EC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Londrina Analysis

With 25 points from 27 games and a place of 18, Londrina still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 32:39 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Paulinho Moccelin (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), João Vitor (3 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 47 points from 27 games, Fortaleza EC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 30:22, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Vitinho (5 goals), Maílton (4 goals), J. Miritello (3 goals), with creative support from Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Maílton (1 assists), João Ricardo (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Londrina won 0 times, Fortaleza EC won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Londrina's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Londrina 4-1-4-1 / Fortaleza EC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Londrina wins 0, draws 1, Fortaleza EC wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
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