COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
27.08.2026 23:10
Estadio Bello Horizonte
Referee: Ferney Ossa Orozco, Colombia
Llaneros
Match Timeline
Millonarios
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
4'
Jhon Vásquez
Llaneros
🟥
5'
Jhon Vásquez
Llaneros
🟨
8'
Sebastián Valencia
Millonarios
29'
F. Chaverra · Assist: D. Ruiz
Millonarios
🔄
46'
N. Ospina ↔ Kelvin Osorio
Llaneros
🔄
46'
F. Castaneda ↔ J. Contreras
Llaneros
🔄
46'
Y. Mena ↔ C. Cortes
Llaneros
VAR
52'
Daniel Ruiz
Millonarios
🟨
55'
Howell Mena
Llaneros
🟨
57'
Daniel Ruiz
Millonarios
🟨
61'
Jhojan Escobar
Llaneros
🔄
64'
C. D. Quinones Caicedo ↔ D. Quintero
Llaneros
🔄
70'
S. Valencia ↔ M. Garcia
Millonarios
🔄
70'
D. Ruiz ↔ A. Estupinan
Millonarios
🔄
74'
L. Miranda ↔ J. Ramirez
Llaneros
🟨
78'
Stiven Barreiro
Millonarios
🔄
80'
L. Castro ↔ D. Quintero
Millonarios
🔄
80'
Leonai Souza ↔ S. Viveros
Millonarios
82'
A. Estupinan · Assist: D. Quintero
Millonarios
🔄
86'
F. Chaverra ↔ J. Angulo
Millonarios
🟨
90+1'
Joel Contreras
Llaneros

Llaneros vs Millonarios Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 58.1%
Draw 5.9%
Millonarios Win 36%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros1
Millonarios1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
24 GF / 24 GA
Millonarios Millonarios
WLDWL
35 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.3
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
12
BTTS Yes
13
5
Over 2.5
12
3.67
Shots on Goal
5.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 25 matches
Millonarios Millonarios 27 matches
Llaneros Statistic Millonarios
7 Wins 9
12 Draws 7
6 Losses 11
24 Goals For 35
24 Goals Against 29
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
12 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 18
5 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 8
3.67 Shots On Goal 5.35
10.5 Total Shots 15.17
5.08 Corners 5.87
47% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Millonarios's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Millonarios. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Millonarios in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Millonarios having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Llaneros Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 14, Llaneros still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats with a 17:20 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Neider Ospina (2 goals), Jhon Vásquez (1 goals), Francisco Meza (1 goals), with creative support from Neider Ospina (1 assists), Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), Luis Miranda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Millonarios Analysis

Millonarios sit 10 with 26 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 31:23 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Rodrigo Contreras (1 goals), Andrés Llinás (1 goals), Leonardo Castro (1 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Contreras (1 assists), Francisco Chaverra (1 assists), Andrey Estupiñán (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 1 times, Millonarios won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:8 from Llaneros's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-4-2 / Millonarios 5-4-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 1, draws 2, Millonarios wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification