COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
07.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana
Referee: Luis Matorel Bolivar
Llaneros
Match Timeline
Deportes Tolima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
18'
N. Ospina · Assist: Y. Mena
Llaneros
23'
Sebastián Guzmán
Deportes Tolima
23'
H. H. Mena Posada
Deportes Tolima
🔄
43'
J. Escobar Salcedo ↔ K. Rincon
Llaneros
🟨
47'
Luis Sánchez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
57'
Kevin Rincón
Llaneros
🔄
59'
A. Parra Osorio ↔ J. Hurtado
Deportes Tolima
🔄
59'
E. Lopez ↔ S. Aguayo
Deportes Tolima
65'
S. Aguayo · Assist: J. Hurtado
Deportes Tolima
🔄
70'
F. Castaneda ↔ J. Ramirez
Llaneros
🔄
70'
L. Miranda ↔ J. Contreras
Llaneros
🔄
77'
L. Sanchez ↔ J. Santiago
Deportes Tolima
🔄
85'
N. Ospina ↔ B. Chury
Llaneros
🔄
86'
K. Florez ↔ S. P. Barbosa Gomez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
90+2'
Juan Ramirez
Llaneros

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.4%
Odds 2.78
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.4%
2.78
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.38
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.1%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 41.3%
Draw 14.3%
Deportes Tolima Win 44.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros0.95
Deportes Tolima1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
25 GF / 28 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
52 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
13
BTTS Yes
17
6
Over 2.5
17
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 27 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 41 matches
Llaneros Statistic Deportes Tolima
7 Wins 18
12 Draws 10
8 Losses 13
25 Goals For 52
28 Goals Against 40
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
13 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 27
6 Over 2.5 17
3 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 13
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.61
10.12 Total Shots 12.61
4.96 Corners 4.71
46.5% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportes Tolima arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportes Tolima in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportes Tolima having the stronger overall control. Deportes Tolima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 31 points while Llaneros sit 14 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Neider Ospina (2 goals), Jhon Vásquez (1 goals), Francisco Meza (1 goals), with creative support from Neider Ospina (1 assists), Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), Luis Miranda (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima sit 6 with 31 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 27:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 2 times, Deportes Tolima won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Llaneros's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-1-4-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 2, draws 0, Deportes Tolima wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W D L D L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W L L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L W W D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification