COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Bello Horizonte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.4%
Odds 2.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.4%
2.57
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.26
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.1%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 41.3%
Draw 14.3%
Deportes Tolima Win 44.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros0.96
Deportes Tolima1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
49 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
11
BTTS Yes
15
5
Over 2.5
15
3.86
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 23 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 37 matches
Llaneros Statistic Deportes Tolima
6 Wins 17
11 Draws 9
6 Losses 11
22 Goals For 49
23 Goals Against 35
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
11 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 25
5 Over 2.5 15
3 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 11
3.86 Shots On Goal 4.68
10.68 Total Shots 12.43
5.18 Corners 4.7
47.8% Ball Possession 56.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportes Tolima arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportes Tolima in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportes Tolima having the stronger overall control. Deportes Tolima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 31 points while Llaneros sit 14 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Neider Ospina (2 goals), Jhon Vásquez (1 goals), Francisco Meza (1 goals), with creative support from Neider Ospina (1 assists), Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), Luis Miranda (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima sit 6 with 31 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 27:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 2 times, Deportes Tolima won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Llaneros's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-1-4-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 2, draws 0, Deportes Tolima wins 3
Last matches: Llaneros
27.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
0
2
L
23.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
19.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
04.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
W
31.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Llaneros
Chico
0
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Junior
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
01.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Santa Fe
1
0
W
30.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
America de Cali
0
0
D
17.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Cucuta
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Jaguares
2
0
W
05.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
1
2
L
10.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
26.08.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
1
3
L
22.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
19.08.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
08.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
04.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
H2H: Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima
14.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
07.02.26
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Llaneros
0
1
W
08.11.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Llaneros
3
1
L
06.09.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
19.05.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
3
L
24.03.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Llaneros
1
0
L
Last matches: Llaneros
27.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
0
2
L
04.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
W
24.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
30.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
1
1
D
17.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Cucuta
2
2
D
09.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Jaguares
2
0
W
05.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
10.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
02.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
14.11.25
Pri
Llaneros
Envigado
0
3
L
31.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
19.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
2
0
W
04.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
20.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
11.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
H2H at home: Llaneros
14.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
06.09.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
19.05.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
3
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
26.08.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Chico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
America de Cali
1
1
D
05.03.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
O'Higgins
0
1
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Cucuta
2
3
L
20.02.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
18.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
0
W
13.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
0
3
L
04.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
H2H away: Deportes Tolima
14.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
06.09.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
L
19.05.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.57
Draw 3.07
Home 2.96
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.39
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.66
Over 2.25 1.97
Over 2.5 2.26
Over 2.75 2.64
Over 3.5 4.09
Under 1.5 2.98
Under 1.75 2.61
Under 2.0 2.22
Under 2.25 1.85
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 3.00
Home 2.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.05
Home 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.30
Home 3.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.53
Draw 2.94
Home 2.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.24
Draw 1.89
Home 3.82
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 2.25
Home 3.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.07
Over 1.25 1.22
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.46
Over 2.0 1.62
Over 2.25 1.94
Over 2.5 2.21
Over 2.75 2.52
Over 3.0 3.18
Over 3.25 3.44
Over 3.5 3.84
Over 3.75 4.85
Over 4.0 6.95
Over 4.25 7.30
Over 4.5 7.70
Over 5.5 16.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 6.95
Under 0.75 6.35
Under 1.0 5.75
Under 1.25 3.50
Under 1.5 2.74
Under 1.75 2.44
Under 2.0 2.09
Under 2.25 1.82
Under 2.5 1.63
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 2.95
Home 2.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.00
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.28
Home 3.15
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.11
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.52
Over 2.0 1.71
Over 2.25 2.00
Over 2.5 2.30
Over 2.75 2.70
Over 3.0 3.45
Over 3.25 3.80
Over 3.5 4.10
Over 3.75 5.10
Over 4.0 7.50
Over 4.5 10.50
Under 0.5 6.10
Under 1.0 5.20
Under 1.25 3.35
Under 1.5 2.63
Under 1.75 2.30
Under 2.0 1.98
Under 2.25 1.68
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 2.75 1.38
Under 3.0 1.25
Under 3.25 1.21
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.5 1.02

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W L W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D L L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D D L D W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D W L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D L L
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
L D W L W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D W W L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W W W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L W D W D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L W L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W D L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L D L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D L L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W D L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L W
Post season qualification