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18.10.2026 21:30
Estadio Belvedere

Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 42.2%
Draw 12.7%
Penarol Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.13
Penarol1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
44 GF / 33 GA
Penarol Penarol
WLDWL
60 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.54
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
16
BTTS Yes
22
15
Over 2.5
17
2.71
Shots on Goal
2.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 34 matches
Penarol Penarol 39 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Penarol
13 Wins 20
12 Draws 10
9 Losses 9
44 Goals For 60
33 Goals Against 35
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
16 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 30
15 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 7
2.71 Shots On Goal 2.92
6 Total Shots 9.58
2.29 Corners 2.58
31.7% Ball Possession 31.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Penarol. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Liverpool Montevideo expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Penarol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

Liverpool Montevideo are currently 6 in the standings with 50 points from 32 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 43:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Penarol Analysis

Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 62 points after 31 matches. They have recorded 19 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 50:25 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 3-4-1-2 / Penarol 3-4-2-1

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
5 32 14 11 7 36:27 9 53
L L L D W
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 32 14 8 10 41:39 2 50
L W W D D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 32 10 10 12 37:39 -2 40
W D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 32 10 6 16 26:47 -21 36
W L D L W
12 32 8 11 13 30:39 -9 35
L L W L W
13 32 9 7 16 32:43 -11 34
W D L L L
14 32 8 9 15 29:37 -8 33
L L L L D
15 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
16 32 8 5 19 28:47 -19 29
D L W W L
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