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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.10.2026 18:45
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: Clement Turpin, France
Lille
Match Timeline
Stade Brestois 29
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Mama Baldé · Assist: Gautier Lloris
Stade Brestois 29
🟨
13'
Kamory Doumbia
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
45'
Mama Baldé ↔ Joseph Nonge
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
54'
Romain Perraud ↔ Calvin Verdonk
Lille
🟨
58'
Bradley Locko
Stade Brestois 29
⚽
64'
Olivier Giroud
Lille
🔄
65'
Dilane Bakwa ↔ Soriba Diaoune
Lille
🔄
65'
Benjamin André ↔ Nabil Bentaleb
Lille
🔄
77'
Pathé Mboup ↔ Ibrahim Yayiya Kanté
Stade Brestois 29
🔄
77'
Ngal'ayel Mukau ↔ Maurits Kjaergaard
Lille
🔄
82'
Kamory Doumbia ↔ Mamady Diambou
Stade Brestois 29
🟨
90'
Calvin Verdonk
Lille

Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds 2.03
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
2.03 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.8%
1.32 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 62.7%
Draw 4.4%
Stade Brestois 29 Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.82
Stade Brestois 291.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
L W W L W
6 GF / 6 GA
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29
W D L L W
10 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
8
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
10
4.38
Shots on Goal
6.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 14 matches
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 13 matches
Lille Statistic Stade Brestois 29
7 Wins 3
3 Draws 6
4 Losses 4
26 Goals For 23
19 Goals Against 23
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
8 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 3
4.38 Shots On Goal 6.5
9.88 Total Shots 19.17
2.88 Corners 5.33
46.6% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lille's more proactive style and Stade Brestois 29's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Stade Brestois 29. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 10 points compared to Stade Brestois 29 in 12 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Lille Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 10 points from 5 games, Lille bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Tiago Santos (2 goals), A. Ueda (2 goals), O. Giroud (1 goals), with creative support from O. Giroud (2 assists), M. Kjærgaard (2 assists), D. Bakwa (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Stade Brestois 29 Analysis

Stade Brestois 29 are currently 12 in the standings with 5 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Doumbia (4 goals), P. Mboup (1 goals), Romain Del Castillo (1 goals), with creative support from K. Doumbia (1 assists), J. Chotard (1 assists), Mama Baldé (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 5 times, Stade Brestois 29 won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from Lille's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lille 3, Stade Brestois 29 4
H2H summary: Lille wins 5, draws 6, Stade Brestois 29 wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 2 1 13:5 8 14
W L W D W
2 7 4 2 1 14:9 5 14
W W W W L
3 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W L W D W
4
Lille Home
7 4 2 1 10:5 5 14
D W L W W
5 7 4 2 1 10:6 4 14
L D W D W
6 7 4 1 2 15:14 1 13
L W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 7:6 1 11
W W L D W
8 7 3 1 3 14:11 3 10
W W L D L
9 7 3 0 4 14:10 4 9
W W L L L
10 7 2 3 2 13:10 3 9
D W L L W
11 7 2 3 2 12:11 1 9
W D W D L
12 7 3 0 4 11:17 -6 9
W L W W L
13 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
L W W L D
14 7 2 1 4 12:15 -3 7
L L L D W
15 7 2 1 4 9:15 -6 7
L L W D L
16 7 1 3 3 10:15 -5 6
L L W D D
17 7 1 1 5 5:16 -11 4
L L L L L
18 7 0 2 5 5:11 -6 2
L L L D L
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