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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
10.10.2026 15:15
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: Bastien Dechepy, France
Lille
Match Timeline
Le Havre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
D. Bakwa · Assist: T. Nianzou
Lille
🔄
22'
T. Santos ↔ A. Goffi
Lille
🔄
57'
O. Giroud ↔ A. Ueda
Lille
🔄
57'
G. Perrin ↔ H. Haraldsson
Lille
🟥
61'
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
🟨
63'
Rassoul Ndiaye
Le Havre
🔄
70'
J. Maja ↔ J. Mwanga
Le Havre
🔄
70'
S. Nakamura ↔ R. Fofana
Le Havre
🔄
73'
R. Perraud ↔ C. Verdonk
Lille
🔄
73'
N. Mukau ↔ O. Sahraoui
Lille
🟨
76'
Djibril Ouziad
Le Havre
🔄
82'
A. Richardson ↔ K. Mizuta
Le Havre
🟨
85'
Maurits Kjaergaard
Lille
🟨
90+2'
Maxima Goffi
Lille

Lille vs Le Havre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 72.9%
Draw 4.7%
Le Havre Win 22.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.78
Le Havre1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
W L W L W
8 GF / 6 GA
Le Havre Le Havre
W L D L D
10 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
8
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
5.67
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 12 matches
Le Havre Le Havre 12 matches
Lille Statistic Le Havre
6 Wins 3
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 6
25 Goals For 17
16 Goals Against 16
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 3
5.67 Shots On Goal 5
11.67 Total Shots 15.6
3.17 Corners 5.6
47.3% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lille's more proactive style and Le Havre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Le Havre arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 10 points compared to Le Havre in 18 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Le Havre in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Le Havre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Le Havre. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Lille Analysis

Lille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 10 points after 5 matches. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Tiago Santos (2 goals), A. Ueda (2 goals), O. Giroud (1 goals), with creative support from O. Giroud (2 assists), M. Kjærgaard (2 assists), D. Bakwa (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Le Havre Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 18, Le Havre still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 4:7 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Samatta (2 goals), J. Maja (1 goals), with creative support from S. Nakamura (1 assists), Fodé Doucouré (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 5 times, Le Havre won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:5 from Lille's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Le Havre 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Lille 1, Le Havre 6
H2H summary: Lille wins 5, draws 1, Le Havre wins 1

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 2 1 13:5 8 14
W L W D W
2 7 4 2 1 14:9 5 14
W W W W L
3 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W L W D W
4
Lille Home
7 4 2 1 10:5 5 14
D W L W W
5 7 4 2 1 10:6 4 14
L D W D W
6 7 4 1 2 15:14 1 13
L W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 7:6 1 11
W W L D W
8 7 3 1 3 14:11 3 10
W W L D L
9 7 3 0 4 14:10 4 9
W W L L L
10 7 2 3 2 13:10 3 9
D W L L W
11 7 2 3 2 12:11 1 9
W D W D L
12 7 3 0 4 11:17 -6 9
W L W W L
13 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
L W W L D
14 7 2 1 4 12:15 -3 7
L L L D W
15 7 2 1 4 9:15 -6 7
L L W D L
16 7 1 3 3 10:15 -5 6
L L W D D
17 7 1 1 5 5:16 -11 4
L L L L L
18 7 0 2 5 5:11 -6 2
L L L D L
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