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25.10.2026 21:00
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Leones del Norte vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 29.9%
Draw 11.7%
Libertad Win 58.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.02
Libertad1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
32 GF / 36 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
42 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
15
BTTS Yes
15
11
Over 2.5
16
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 32 matches
Libertad Libertad 33 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Libertad
10 Wins 14
10 Draws 8
12 Losses 11
32 Goals For 42
36 Goals Against 35
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
15 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 9
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.12
12.88 Total Shots 11.85
4.19 Corners 3.79
47.3% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Leones del Norte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Libertad in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Leones del Norte Analysis

With 39 points from 30 games and a place of 8, Leones del Norte still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Luis Anangonó León (6 goals), D. Pazmiño (3 goals), C. Solano (3 goals), with creative support from R. Arroyo (3 assists), D. Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad are currently 7 in the standings with 41 points from 30 matches. The record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (10 goals), G. Cortéz (6 goals), A. Chére (5 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (5 assists), E. Patta (3 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-1-4-1 / Libertad 5-4-1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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