16.09.2026 22:00
Penalties 3-4
3 - 2
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: W. Roldan
LDU de Quito
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
15'
Luis Segovia · Assist: Lucas Rodriguez
LDU de Quito
🔄
56'
Sebastián González ↔ Fernando Cornejo
LDU de Quito
🔄
56'
Janner Corozo ↔ Alexander Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🟨
61'
José Manuel López
Palmeiras
🟥
66'
Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira
Palmeiras
🔄
67'
José Manuel López ↔ Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
🟨
68'
Juan rodriguez
LDU de Quito
73'
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
🔄
80'
Marcelo Weigandt ↔ Jose Carabali
LDU de Quito
🔄
84'
Richard Mina ↔ Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🔄
85'
Jhon Arias ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🔄
89'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Maurício Magalhães Prado
Palmeiras
90'
Michael Estrada
LDU de Quito
90+3'
Michael Estrada · Assist: Alexander Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🟨
90+5'
Michael Estrada
LDU de Quito
91'
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
92'
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
93'
Maurício Magalhães Prado
Palmeiras
94'
Lucas Rodriguez
LDU de Quito
94'
Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
95'
Michael Estrada
LDU de Quito
96'
Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
97'
Fernando Cornejo
LDU de Quito
98'
Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
99'
Luis Segovia
LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 64.4%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.59
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
64.4%
1.50
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.05
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.59
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 35.6%
Draw 18.5%
Palmeiras Win 45.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito0.94
Palmeiras1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
45 GF / 34 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
60 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.67
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
15
BTTS Yes
21
10
Over 2.5
16
3.33
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 42 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 36 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Palmeiras
18 Wins 21
11 Draws 11
13 Losses 4
45 Goals For 60
34 Goals Against 27
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
15 BTTS Yes 21
25 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 8
16 Clean Sheets 14
16 Failed To Score 4
3.33 Shots On Goal 5.03
13.54 Total Shots 15.53
5.13 Corners 6.11
49.7% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Palmeiras. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito enter this tie with a season profile built on 12 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 8:5, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Yerlin Quinonez (2 goals), Deyverson (2 goals), Michael Estrada (1 goals), with creative support from Janner Corozo (3 assists), Michael Estrada (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 11 points from 6 matches. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 10:5 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by José Manuel López (3 goals), Jhon Arias (3 goals), Ramón Sosa (2 goals), with creative support from José Manuel López (4 assists), Jhon Arias (2 assists), Allan (2 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 1 times, Palmeiras won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 1, draws 0, Palmeiras wins 1

Standings

Group G
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 0 2 8:5 3 12
W W L L W
2 6 4 0 2 7:4 3 12
L W W W L
3 6 3 0 3 3:7 -4 9
W L L W W
4 6 1 0 5 7:9 -2 3
L L W L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals