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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
24.10.2026 07:30
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Henan Jianye Win 19%
Draw 4.4%
Beijing Guoan Win 76.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Henan Jianye1.22
Beijing Guoan1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Henan Jianye Henan Jianye
WWDLW
35 GF / 38 GA
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan
WLDWL
53 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
17
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
17
4.11
Shots on Goal
5.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 28 matches
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 28 matches
Henan Jianye Statistic Beijing Guoan
8 Wins 13
10 Draws 10
10 Losses 5
35 Goals For 53
38 Goals Against 33
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
17 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 17
5 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 2
4.11 Shots On Goal 5.43
12.82 Total Shots 15.04
5.61 Corners 5.79
53.1% Ball Possession 60%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Beijing Guoan's more proactive style and Henan Jianye's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Beijing Guoan. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Henan Jianye expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Beijing Guoan in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Beijing Guoan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Beijing Guoan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 41 points while Henan Jianye sit 13 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Henan Jianye Analysis

So far, Henan Jianye have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 28 points from 28 matches. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 35:38 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gustavo (12 goals), Bruno Nazário (8 goals), Yihao Zhong (3 goals), with creative support from Bruno Nazário (5 assists), Gustavo (4 assists), Shangyuan Wang (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Beijing Guoan Analysis

Placed 3 with 41 points from 27 outings, Beijing Guoan continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, while the 52:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Zhang Yuning (12 goals), Fabio Abreu (10 goals), Sai Erjini'ao (5 goals), with creative support from Zhang Yuning (6 assists), Fabio Abreu (5 assists), Sai Erjini'ao (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Henan Jianye won 6 times, Beijing Guoan won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Henan Jianye's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Henan Jianye 4-2-3-1 / Beijing Guoan 4-4-2
H2H summary: Henan Jianye wins 6, draws 1, Beijing Guoan wins 8

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 15 7 6 51:34 17 52
L L D W L
2 28 14 4 10 45:43 2 46
W W W D W
3 28 13 10 5 53:33 20 44
W W D D D
4 28 14 5 9 52:44 8 41
W D D W L
5 28 12 8 8 47:35 12 39
W W D W W
6 28 11 6 11 56:59 -3 39
D L W L D
7 28 8 14 6 31:37 -6 38
L L D D W
8 28 14 5 9 62:48 14 37
W W W L W
9 28 7 12 9 29:34 -5 33
D D L D L
10 28 11 8 9 38:32 6 31
W W W W D
11 28 10 6 12 47:52 -5 31
L L W L W
12 28 8 5 15 37:50 -13 29
L D D L D
13 28 8 5 15 39:48 -9 29
W D L L L
14 28 8 10 10 35:38 -3 28
L D D D D
15 28 5 12 11 41:50 -9 22
L D L D D
16 28 6 3 19 34:60 -26 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation