ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar, Ecuador
LDU de Quito
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Johan Estacio
Libertad
🟨
30'
Luis Segovia
LDU de Quito
VAR
33'
Luis Segovia
LDU de Quito
🟨
45+3'
Rodney Redes
LDU de Quito
🔄
46'
L. Segovia ↔ R. Ade
LDU de Quito
🔄
46'
J. Estacio ↔ C. Valencia
Libertad
VAR
50'
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🔄
63'
A. Chere ↔ D. Coronel
Libertad
🔄
68'
V. Branda ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
69'
J. Guisamano ↔ Y. Quinonez
Libertad
🔄
72'
I. Zambrano ↔ A. Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🔄
72'
J. Carabali ↔ R. Mina
LDU de Quito
🟨
77'
Yerman Quinonez
Libertad
🔄
82'
J. Bravo ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
85'
R. Redes ↔ C. Luna Tobar
LDU de Quito
🔄
85'
J. Pretell ↔ A. Gomez
LDU de Quito
🟨
90+7'
Gian Franco Allala
LDU de Quito

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 76.2%
Draw 4.6%
Libertad Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.33
Libertad0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
32 GF / 22 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
9
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
3.48
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 26 matches
Libertad Libertad 17 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Libertad
13 Wins 4
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
32 Goals For 17
22 Goals Against 25
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
9 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 6
3.48 Shots On Goal 3.35
13.65 Total Shots 10
4.96 Corners 3.47
49.1% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by LDU de Quito's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. LDU de Quito arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 27 points compared to Libertad in 14 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. LDU de Quito come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 27 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 19:13 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Deyverson (4 goals), Rodney Redes (2 goals), Janner Corozo (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), Rodney Redes (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 17 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 17:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (4 goals), G. Cortéz (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 6 times, Libertad won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:10 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 3-1-4-2 / Libertad 5-3-2
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 6, draws 2, Libertad wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs