ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: G. Guerrero
LDU de Quito
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
J. Estacio
Libertad
🟨
30'
L. Segovia
LDU de Quito
VAR
39'
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🟨
45+3'
R. Redes
LDU de Quito
🔄
46'
J. Estacio ↔ C. Valencia
Libertad
🔄
46'
L. Segovia ↔ R. Ade
LDU de Quito
VAR
46'
Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🔄
63'
A. Chere ↔ D. Coronel
Libertad
🔄
68'
V. Branda ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
69'
J. Guisamano ↔ Y. Quinonez
Libertad
🔄
72'
J. Carabali ↔ R. Mina
LDU de Quito
🔄
72'
I. Zambrano ↔ A. Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🟨
77'
Y. Quinonez
Libertad
🔄
82'
J. Bravo ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
🔄
85'
R. Redes ↔ C. Luna Tobar
LDU de Quito
🔄
85'
J. Pretell ↔ A. Gomez
LDU de Quito
🟨
90+7'
G. F. Allala Menendez
LDU de Quito
🟨
90+8'
Tiago Nunes
LDU de Quito

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.2%
1.22
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.53
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.45
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 76.2%
Draw 4.6%
Libertad Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.33
Libertad0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
32 GF / 22 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
9
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
3.23
Shots on Goal
3.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 26 matches
Libertad Libertad 17 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Libertad
13 Wins 4
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
32 Goals For 17
22 Goals Against 25
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
9 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 6
3.23 Shots On Goal 3.24
12.82 Total Shots 9.71
4.59 Corners 3.47
46.5% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by LDU de Quito's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. LDU de Quito arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 27 points compared to Libertad in 14 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. LDU de Quito come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 27 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 19:13 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Deyverson (4 goals), Rodney Redes (2 goals), Janner Corozo (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), Rodney Redes (1 assists), Jesús Pretell (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 17 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 17:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (4 goals), G. Cortéz (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 6 times, Libertad won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:10 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito - / Libertad 5-3-2
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 6, draws 2, Libertad wins 2
Last matches: LDU de Quito
05.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
1
L
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
24.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
12.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
07.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
28.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Emelec
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
19.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
2
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
1
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H: LDU de Quito vs Libertad
12.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
08.03.26
H2H
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
L
14.12.25
H2H
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
L
09.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
1
W
13.09.25
H2H
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
1
W
20.05.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
1
1
D
25.08.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
0
W
01.05.24
H2H
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
3
W
12.11.23
H2H
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
4
2
W
Last matches: LDU de Quito
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
15.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
2
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
4
2
W
H2H at home: LDU de Quito
12.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
09.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
1
W
20.05.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
1
1
D
25.08.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
4
2
W
Last matches: Libertad
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad
12.07.26
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
09.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
1
L
20.05.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
1
1
D
25.08.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
3
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Libertad
4
2
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 11.51
Draw 6.47
Home 1.22
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 9.90
Draw 2.86
Home 1.62
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 2.0 1.42
Over 2.25 1.46
Over 2.5 1.53
Over 2.75 1.66
Over 3.0 1.88
Over 3.25 2.14
Over 3.5 2.41
Over 4.5 4.32
Under 1.5 5.06
Under 2.0 2.83
Under 2.25 2.74
Under 2.5 2.50
Under 2.75 2.22
Under 3.0 1.94
Under 3.25 1.71
Under 3.5 1.56
Under 4.5 1.21
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 10.00
Draw 5.75
Home 1.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 9.50
Draw 2.62
Home 1.67
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.50
Draw 2.75
Home 1.67
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 19.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.20
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.18
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 11.30
Draw 5.91
Home 1.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 8.60
Draw 2.55
Home 1.64
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 8.30
Draw 3.16
Home 1.47
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.07
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 1.75 1.19
Over 2.0 1.25
Over 2.25 1.42
Over 2.5 1.60
Over 2.75 1.74
Over 3.0 2.00
Over 3.25 2.19
Over 3.5 2.55
Over 3.75 2.86
Over 4.0 4.43
Over 4.25 3.94
Over 4.5 5.72
Over 4.75 5.30
Over 5.0 15.50
Over 5.5 20.00
Over 6.5 22.00
Over 7.5 32.00
Under 0.5 16.50
Under 0.75 9.00
Under 1.0 20.00
Under 1.25 6.03
Under 1.5 5.49
Under 1.75 3.94
Under 2.0 3.92
Under 2.25 2.64
Under 2.5 2.26
Under 2.75 2.01
Under 3.0 1.80
Under 3.25 1.59
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 3.75 1.34
Under 4.0 1.23
Under 4.25 1.18
Under 4.5 1.16
Under 4.75 1.09
Under 5.0 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 10.00
Draw 5.30
Home 1.26
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 8.00
Draw 2.70
Home 1.68
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 7.50
Draw 3.15
Home 1.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.0 1.27
Over 2.25 1.44
Over 2.5 1.62
Over 2.75 1.77
Over 3.0 2.02
Over 3.25 2.30
Over 3.5 2.55
Over 3.75 3.05
Over 4.0 3.90
Over 4.25 4.20
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 4.75 5.60
Over 5.0 8.00
Under 1.5 4.10
Under 2.0 3.35
Under 2.25 2.55
Under 2.5 2.14
Under 2.75 1.91
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.25 1.53
Under 3.5 1.43
Under 3.75 1.32
Under 4.0 1.20
Under 4.25 1.18
Under 4.5 1.16
Under 4.75 1.10
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 1 3 40:19 21 43
W W W L W
2 18 9 5 4 21:16 5 32
W W D W L
3 18 8 6 4 20:13 7 30
D W L W W
4 18 8 4 6 19:14 5 28
D L W D W
5 18 8 3 7 18:20 -2 27
L L W D W
6 18 7 5 6 28:18 10 26
L L L W D
7 18 7 5 6 18:18 0 26
W W D L L
8 18 7 2 9 19:19 0 23
L W W W L
9 18 6 5 7 19:19 0 23
W W D L W
10 18 6 5 7 22:24 -2 23
D L L L W
11 18 6 4 8 16:21 -5 22
W L L D L
12 18 6 6 6 14:17 -3 21
D D W W D
13 18 5 6 7 23:27 -4 21
L W D D L
14 18 4 6 8 17:25 -8 18
D L L W L
15 18 4 5 9 10:18 -8 17
L D L L D
16 18 3 4 11 7:23 -16 13
D L W L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs