BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Lagarto
Match Timeline
Sergipe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
Rhuann
Lagarto
90'
Betinho
Sergipe

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lagarto Win 45.6%
Draw 14.6%
Sergipe Win 39.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lagarto1.37
Sergipe1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lagarto Lagarto
WWDLW
9 GF / 12 GA
Sergipe Sergipe
WLDWL
11 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.83
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
5
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lagarto Lagarto 6 matches
Sergipe Sergipe 6 matches
Lagarto Statistic Sergipe
1 Wins 4
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 1
9 Goals For 11
12 Goals Against 7
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
5 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sergipe's more proactive style and Lagarto's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sergipe. Sergipe look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Sergipe carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Lagarto sit 4 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sergipe having the stronger overall control.

Lagarto Analysis

Lagarto sit 4 with 5 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 9:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Rhuann (4 goals), Erik Gabriel (3 goals), Alessandro (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sergipe Analysis

Sergipe come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 13 points after 6 matches. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 11:7, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Betinho (3 goals), Felipe Valdivia (2 goals), Venicius (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lagarto won 5 times, Sergipe won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from Lagarto's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
H2H summary: Lagarto wins 5, draws 6, Sergipe wins 4
Last matches: Lagarto
27.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
0
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
5
4
W
05.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
1
D
10.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
2
2
D
03.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
4
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
1
L
16.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
2
1
W
11.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
1
2
L
Last matches: Sergipe
27.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
1
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
1
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
1
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
1
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
2
2
D
28.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
2
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
2
L
08.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
4
1
W
H2H: Lagarto vs Sergipe
16.05.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
25.04.26
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
1
L
14.02.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
W
12.07.25
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
2
W
03.05.25
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
3
L
16.02.25
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
0
4
W
06.04.24
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
1
1
D
31.03.24
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
31.01.24
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
0
0
D
15.03.23
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
2
D
18.06.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
11.05.22
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
0
0
D
26.03.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
2
L
26.02.22
H2H
Sergipe
Lagarto
2
1
L
22.05.21
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
W
Last matches: Lagarto
21.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
CSA
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Lagarto
Decisão
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Lagarto
Serra Branca
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Retrô
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Lagarto
Treze
5
4
W
10.08.25
Ser
Lagarto
Central SC
2
2
D
19.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Barcelona BA
2
0
W
06.07.25
Ser
Lagarto
Penedense
4
0
W
16.06.25
Ser
Lagarto
Jequié
2
1
W
31.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Juazeirense
3
1
W
17.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
ASA
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
3
L
19.04.25
Ser
Lagarto
União Carmolandense
2
1
W
H2H at home: Lagarto
16.05.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
14.02.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
W
03.05.25
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
3
L
31.03.24
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
15.03.23
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
2
D
18.06.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
W
26.03.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
2
L
22.05.21
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
W
Last matches: Sergipe
21.06.26
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Decisão
2
3
L
04.05.26
Ser
Sergipe
Retrô
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Treze
1
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Sergipe
Serra Branca
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Sergipe
Santa Cruz
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
Juazeirense
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Sergipe
ASA
2
2
D
14.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
União Carmolandense
0
2
L
01.06.25
Ser
Sergipe
Barcelona BA
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
Penedense
1
0
W
03.05.25
Ser
Sergipe
Lagarto
3
0
W
20.04.25
Ser
Sergipe
Jequié
0
1
L
H2H away: Sergipe
16.05.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
14.02.26
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
L
03.05.25
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
3
W
31.03.24
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
1
D
15.03.23
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
2
D
18.06.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
2
1
L
26.03.22
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
0
2
W
22.05.21
H2H
Lagarto
Sergipe
1
0
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)