ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
05.09.2026 11:30
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: K. Kaivoja
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
J. Vahermagi
Kuressaare
🟨
40'
S. Kondrattsev
Trans Narva
41'
T. Jurisoo
Kuressaare
44'
S. Sinilaid · Assist: R. Piil
Kuressaare
🔄
46'
Elysee ↔ A. Skinjov
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
M. Velijev ↔ S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🟨
54'
S. Prunn
Kuressaare
64'
S. Agaptsev · Assist: A. Skinjov
Trans Narva
🔄
65'
G. Slein ↔ A. Besigirskis
Trans Narva
🔄
65'
A. Filatov ↔ E. Zuravljov
Trans Narva
🔄
65'
A. Visse ↔ A. Kivi
Kuressaare
🔄
66'
S. Sinilaid ↔ A. Svedovski
Kuressaare
🟨
70'
D. Andreas
Kuressaare
🟨
72'
T. Jurisoo
Kuressaare
🔄
85'
S. Kondrattsev ↔ A. Ivanyushin
Trans Narva
89'
E. Demidov · Assist: A. Kivi
Kuressaare

Kuressaare vs Trans Narva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69%
Odds 2.91
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69%
2.91
BTTS Yes
75%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.88
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
2.95
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 69%
Draw 7%
Trans Narva Win 23.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.62
Trans Narva1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
38 GF / 58 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
30 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
2.15
17
BTTS Yes
16
18
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 30 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 33 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Trans Narva
8 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
16 Losses 21
38 Goals For 30
58 Goals Against 71
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 2.15
17 BTTS Yes 16
22 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Trans Narva. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare sit 9 with 24 points after 24 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 25:39 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 17 points after 24 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 17 losses with goals at 18:55 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 8 times, Trans Narva won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:11 from Kuressaare's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Kuressaare 4-2-3-1 / Trans Narva -
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 8, draws 4, Trans Narva wins 3

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga