FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Vare Areena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.2%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
87%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
KuPS Win 70.2%
Draw 10%
Ilves Win 19.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
KuPS1.4
Ilves1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
KuPS KuPS
WWDLW
22 GF / 12 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
32 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
2
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
9
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
9
3.15
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KuPS KuPS 16 matches
Ilves Ilves 16 matches
KuPS Statistic Ilves
8 Wins 7
7 Draws 3
1 Losses 6
22 Goals For 32
12 Goals Against 23
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
9 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 2
3.15 Shots On Goal 2.67
7.69 Total Shots 6
3.15 Corners 2.08
28.4% Ball Possession 23.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by KuPS's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ilves. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. KuPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 21 points compared to Ilves in 8 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with KuPS expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ilves in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 21 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, while the 17:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (6 goals), B. Armah (4 goals), O. Ruoppi (3 goals), with creative support from O. Ruoppi (3 assists), P. Pennanen (2 assists), S. Savolainen (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves sit 8 with 12 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 14:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Hytonen (4 goals), Jardell Kanga (3 goals), M. Stjopin (3 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (4 assists), T. Hytonen (1 assists), M. Rale (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, KuPS won 5 times, Ilves won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:26 from KuPS's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: KuPS 4-2-3-1 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: KuPS wins 5, draws 2, Ilves wins 8
Last matches: KuPS
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
Last matches: Ilves
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H: KuPS vs Ilves
04.04.26
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
W
14.02.26
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
1
L
16.10.25
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
1
1
D
14.09.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
2
4
L
14.06.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
3
L
21.05.25
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
3
0
L
18.01.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
3
4
L
20.12.24
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
2
2
D
24.09.24
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
1
0
L
18.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
W
31.05.24
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
1
2
W
27.01.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
2
L
13.08.23
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
0
3
W
23.04.23
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
W
11.02.23
H2H
Ilves
KuPS
3
0
L
Last matches: KuPS
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
06.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Slovan Bratislava
3
1
W
02.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Drita
1
1
D
28.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
2
L
14.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
1
0
W
22.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
2
0
W
08.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
1
0
W
H2H at home: KuPS
14.02.26
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
1
L
14.09.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
2
4
L
14.06.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
3
L
18.01.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
3
4
L
18.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
W
27.01.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
2
L
23.04.23
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
W
Last matches: Ilves
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
14.02.26
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
1
W
14.09.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
2
4
W
14.06.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
3
W
18.01.25
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
3
4
W
18.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
L
27.01.24
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
0
2
W
23.04.23
H2H
KuPS
Ilves
1
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3
KuPS Home
13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8
Ilves Away
12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)