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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.09.2026 15:00
Samara Arena
Referee: Vladimir Moskalev, Russia
Krylia Sovetov
Match Timeline
Rodina Moskva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Artem Sokol
Rodina Moskva
🔄
46'
L. Goglichidze ↔ I. Dyatlov
Rodina Moskva
🔄
58'
D. Makarov ↔ D. Oroz
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
58'
A. Rahmanovic ↔ V. Shitov
Krylia Sovetov
⚽
59'
I. Timoshenko
Rodina Moskva
⚽
64'
M. Kramaric · Assist: V. Shitov
Krylia Sovetov
🟨
65'
Nikita Chernov
Krylia Sovetov
🟨
65'
Iker Pozo
Rodina Moskva
🔄
69'
M. Vityugov ↔ K. Stolbov
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
69'
N. Rasskazov ↔ N. Saltykov
Krylia Sovetov
🔄
69'
A. Gordyushenko ↔ B. Mansilla
Rodina Moskva
🔄
69'
A. Maksimenko ↔ S. Bakaev
Rodina Moskva
🟨
73'
Yordy Reyna
Rodina Moskva
🔄
74'
I. Pozo ↔ R. Fishchenko
Rodina Moskva
🔄
81'
L. Musaev ↔ A. Egorychev
Rodina Moskva
🔄
82'
M. Kramaric ↔ K. Mukailov
Krylia Sovetov
🟨
87'
Artem Meshchaninov
Rodina Moskva
⚽
88'
K. Stolbov · Assist: V. Shitov
Krylia Sovetov
🟨
90+3'
Mickaël Nadé
Rodina Moskva

Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Krylia Sovetov Win 41.4%
Draw 31.8%
Rodina Moskva Win 26.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Krylia Sovetov1.81
Rodina Moskva1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov
WWDLW
29 GF / 31 GA
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
WLDWL
16 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
2.11
11
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
11
5.29
Shots on Goal
2.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov 18 matches
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 18 matches
Krylia Sovetov Statistic Rodina Moskva
5 Wins 2
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 11
29 Goals For 16
31 Goals Against 38
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 2.11
11 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 8
5.29 Shots On Goal 2.29
11.71 Total Shots 6.86
3.43 Corners 2.43
45.9% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Rodina Moskva arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rodina Moskva. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Krylia Sovetov expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rodina Moskva in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rodina Moskva having the stronger overall control.

Krylia Sovetov Analysis

Krylia Sovetov are currently 11 in the standings with 6 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ivan Oleynikov (1 goals), Maksim Vityugov (1 goals), Dominik Oroz (1 goals), with creative support from Mihajlo Banjac (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rodina Moskva Analysis

With 4 points from 6 games and a place of 13, Rodina Moskva still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 8:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Artem Maksimenko (3 goals), Iker Pozo (2 goals), Artur Gharibyan (2 goals), with creative support from Artem Maksimenko (1 assists), Iker Pozo (1 assists), Artur Gharibyan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (73.2%)
Predicted formations: Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1 / Rodina Moskva 4-4-2
Missing players: Krylia Sovetov 1, Rodina Moskva 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3 10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6 10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16 10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL