UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
The Royals Park
Kitara
Match Timeline
Police
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
U. Kasumba
Police
47'
P. Kaddu
Kitara
60'
U. Kasumba
Police
🟥
86'
D. Jakony
Police
89'
J. Kalema
Kitara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kitara Win 84.2%
Draw 0%
Police Win 15.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kitara1.27
Police1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kitara Kitara
WWDLW
38 GF / 20 GA
Police Police
WLDWL
40 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
10
BTTS Yes
18
8
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kitara Kitara 28 matches
Police Police 29 matches
Kitara Statistic Police
15 Wins 13
7 Draws 7
6 Losses 9
38 Goals For 40
20 Goals Against 33
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
10 BTTS Yes 18
15 Over 1.5 24
8 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Police having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Police. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kitara Analysis

Kitara arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 55 points after 29 matches. The record of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 41:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Kaddu (9 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Police Analysis

So far, Police have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 46 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, while the 40:33 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Ikamba (8 goals), L. Tezikya (5 goals), U. Kasumba (5 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Kitara won 2 times, Police won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:13 from Kitara's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Kitara wins 2, draws 1, Police wins 3
Last matches: Kitara
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
Last matches: Police
19.05.26
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Police
Maroons
1
3
L
21.04.26
Pre
Police
URA
2
1
W
16.04.26
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
2
1
W
08.04.26
Pre
Police
Express
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Police
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Police
BUL
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Police
Lugazi
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Police
URA
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
1
4
L
21.01.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
2
0
W
06.01.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
2
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
Police
BUL
3
1
W
10.12.25
Pre
Police
Lugazi
1
1
D
H2H: Kitara vs Police
23.05.26
H2H
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
27.11.25
H2H
Police
Kitara
1
2
W
27.03.25
H2H
Police
Kitara
0
1
W
03.10.24
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
1
L
20.04.21
H2H
Police
Kitara
4
1
L
12.12.20
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
5
L
Last matches: Kitara
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
0
W
30.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
4
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
3
2
W
26.09.25
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kitara
23.05.26
H2H
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
03.10.24
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
1
L
12.12.20
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
5
L
Last matches: Police
06.05.26
Pre
Police
Calvary
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Police
Maroons
1
3
L
16.04.26
Pre
Police
Mbarara City
2
1
W
08.04.26
Pre
Police
Express
1
3
L
06.03.26
Pre
Police
KCCA
1
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Police
Buhimba Saints
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Police
URA
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Police
Vipers
1
4
L
16.12.25
Pre
Police
BUL
3
1
W
10.12.25
Pre
Police
Lugazi
1
1
D
19.11.25
Pre
Police
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
06.11.25
Pre
Police
UPDF
2
1
W
24.10.25
Pre
Police
SC Villa
1
2
L
18.10.25
Pre
Police
NEC
2
2
D
H2H away: Police
23.05.26
H2H
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
03.10.24
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
1
W
12.12.20
H2H
Kitara
Police
0
5
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League