UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
MTN Omondi Stadium
KCCA
Match Timeline
Mbarara City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
Ahimbisibwe Ivan
KCCA
34'
E. Katenga
KCCA
61'
C. Kamugisha
Mbarara City
🟥
71'
K. Ramathan
Mbarara City
79'
E. Anyama
KCCA
90'
K. Muserero
KCCA

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84%
-
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
60.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
KCCA Win 84%
Draw 0%
Mbarara City Win 16%
Expected Goals (xG)
KCCA1.45
Mbarara City0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
KCCA KCCA
WWDLW
42 GF / 21 GA
Mbarara City Mbarara City
WLDWL
25 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.86
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
12
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KCCA KCCA 29 matches
Mbarara City Mbarara City 29 matches
KCCA Statistic Mbarara City
18 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
6 Losses 14
42 Goals For 25
21 Goals Against 42
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
12 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by KCCA's more proactive style and Mbarara City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mbarara City. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mbarara City having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. KCCA arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 59 points compared to Mbarara City in 12 on 27, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

KCCA Analysis

Placed 2 with 59 points from 29 outings, KCCA continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 42:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ahimbisibwe Ivan (13 goals), S. Ssebaduka (6 goals), H. Achayi (5 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Mbarara City Analysis

Mbarara City are currently 12 in the standings with 27 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 25:42 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Kamugisha (7 goals), M. Kanyike (5 goals), H. Kitegenyi (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, KCCA won 8 times, Mbarara City won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:8 from KCCA's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: KCCA wins 8, draws 5, Mbarara City wins 2
Last matches: KCCA
19.05.26
Pre
KCCA
URA
0
0
D
13.05.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
2
1
W
07.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
3
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Calvary
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
3
0
W
11.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Express
3
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
2
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
18.02.26
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
KCCA
NEC
1
3
L
30.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
4
0
W
21.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
0
2
L
16.12.25
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
KCCA
NEC
2
1
W
Last matches: Mbarara City
19.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
3
L
06.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
2
L
09.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
1
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
1
0
W
13.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
1
D
H2H: KCCA vs Mbarara City
23.05.26
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
1
W
28.11.25
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
2
W
26.04.25
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
07.01.25
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
0
2
W
18.04.24
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
0
W
06.12.23
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
2
1
L
13.02.22
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
1
1
D
05.01.22
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
21.04.21
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
0
0
D
11.12.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
2
0
W
08.01.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
26.11.19
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
2
1
L
30.01.19
H2H
Mbarara City
KCCA
0
0
D
31.10.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
0
0
D
03.04.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
1
D
Last matches: KCCA
07.05.26
Pre
KCCA
Maroons
3
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Vipers
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
KCCA
Kitara
1
0
W
11.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Express
3
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
KCCA
Police
2
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
KCCA
BUL
2
1
W
30.01.26
Pre
KCCA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
KCCA
UPDF
4
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
KCCA
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
KCCA
NEC
2
1
W
21.11.25
Pre
KCCA
URA
2
1
W
31.10.25
Pre
KCCA
Calvary
4
2
W
16.10.25
Pre
KCCA
Lugazi
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pre
KCCA
SC Villa
2
1
W
H2H at home: KCCA
23.05.26
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
1
W
26.04.25
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
18.04.24
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
0
W
05.01.22
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
11.12.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
2
0
W
08.01.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
W
31.10.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
0
0
D
03.04.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
1
D
Last matches: Mbarara City
06.05.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Lugazi
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
NEC
0
0
D
09.04.26
Pre
Mbarara City
UPDF
1
3
L
13.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
BUL
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
Mbarara City
URA
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Maroons
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
SC Villa
1
6
L
06.01.26
Pre
Mbarara City
Vipers
0
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Calvary
1
1
D
21.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Buhimba Saints
2
1
W
05.11.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Express
1
4
L
24.10.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Kitara
2
3
L
26.09.25
Pre
Mbarara City
Police
1
1
D
H2H away: Mbarara City
23.05.26
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
1
L
26.04.25
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
L
18.04.24
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
4
0
L
05.01.22
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
L
11.12.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
2
0
L
08.01.20
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
0
L
31.10.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
0
0
D
03.04.18
H2H
KCCA
Mbarara City
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2
KCCA Home
30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League