COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Junior Win 78.9%
Draw 11.6%
Jaguares Win 9.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Junior1.47
Jaguares1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Junior Junior
WWDLW
48 GF / 48 GA
Jaguares Jaguares
WLDWL
24 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
19
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
12
4.08
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Junior Junior 36 matches
Jaguares Jaguares 25 matches
Junior Statistic Jaguares
14 Wins 6
8 Draws 5
14 Losses 14
48 Goals For 24
48 Goals Against 42
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
19 BTTS Yes 12
29 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
4.08 Shots On Goal 3.44
12.83 Total Shots 10.48
4.69 Corners 3.8
50.5% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Junior's more proactive style and Jaguares's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Jaguares. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Junior expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Jaguares in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Jaguares having the stronger overall control. Junior arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 35 points compared to Jaguares in 16 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Junior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Junior Analysis

With 35 points from 19 games and a place of 2, Junior still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 31:24, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Guillermo Paiva (2 goals), Luis Muriel (1 goals), Fabián Ángel (1 goals), with creative support from Déiber Caicedo (1 assists), Daniel Socarras (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 18 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 20:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jerson Malagón (1 goals), Darwin Lopez (1 goals), Andrés Rentería (1 goals), with creative support from Royscer Colpa (1 assists), Wilfrido De la Rosa (1 assists), Carlos Cantillo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Junior won 8 times, Jaguares won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:15 from Junior's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Junior 4-4-2 / Jaguares 3-4-3
H2H summary: Junior wins 8, draws 5, Jaguares wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D L D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L D L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D W D W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D D L D W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D W L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D D W D L
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D D L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D L D W L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D W D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D W W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W D W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L W L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D D L L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W D L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
W D D L L
Post season qualification