COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
11.09.2026 23:15
Estadio Jaraguay

Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
83%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 60.4%
Draw 7.2%
Fortaleza FC Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1.17
Fortaleza FC1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
27 GF / 45 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
30 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
13
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
13
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 26 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 27 matches
Jaguares Statistic Fortaleza FC
6 Wins 6
6 Draws 11
14 Losses 10
27 Goals For 30
45 Goals Against 37
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
13 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.74
10.54 Total Shots 11.67
3.85 Corners 4.07
43% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza FC. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Fortaleza FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jaguares expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Fortaleza FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 18 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 20:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Rentería (7 goals), Yairo Moreno (3 goals), Darwin Lopez (3 goals), with creative support from Andrés Rentería (3 assists), Cristian Alvarez (3 assists), Duvan Rodríguez (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andrés Arroyo (9 goals), Italo Montaño Cortes (3 goals), Richardson Rivas (3 goals), with creative support from Andrés Arroyo (4 assists), Italo Montaño Cortes (2 assists), S. Navarro (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 2 times, Fortaleza FC won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Jaguares's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 3-4-3 / Fortaleza FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 2, draws 0, Fortaleza FC wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D L D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W D D L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W W D W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D D W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D L D W L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D L D W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W L W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D D W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L D L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D W D L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L L D L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W D D L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L W D D
Post season qualification