COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Jaraguay

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.6%
1.75
BTTS Yes
75%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.89
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.42
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 31.7%
Draw 13.7%
Atletico Nacional Win 54.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1
Atletico Nacional1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
20 GF / 35 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
51 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
19
3.35
Shots on Goal
6.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 20 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 28 matches
Jaguares Statistic Atletico Nacional
5 Wins 18
3 Draws 1
12 Losses 9
20 Goals For 51
35 Goals Against 28
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 21
10 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 8
3.35 Shots On Goal 6.12
10.85 Total Shots 16.52
3.95 Corners 4.92
45.8% Ball Possession 56.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Jaguares's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Nacional. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 55 points while Jaguares sit 16 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares sit 16 with 18 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 20:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 55 points from 25 games, Atletico Nacional bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 18 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 49:21, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 2 times, Atletico Nacional won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:26 from Jaguares's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 2, draws 3, Atletico Nacional wins 10
Last matches: Jaguares
25.07.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Bucaramanga
2
2
D
17.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
2
3
L
07.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
02.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Millonarios
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportes Tolima
1
3
L
23.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
19.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Alianza Valledupar
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Llaneros
0
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Junior
0
2
L
23.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
America de Cali
0
3
L
17.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Santa Fe
3
1
W
12.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Chico
0
5
L
09.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Once Caldas
1
1
D
29.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional de Bogota
2
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
Last matches: Atletico Nacional
18.07.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
0
W
03.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
12.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
7
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
01.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Bucaramanga
2
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
3
2
W
07.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
1
W
02.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Cucuta
0
0
D
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
26.03.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Cruz Azul
0
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
3
0
W
18.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Millonarios
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Llaneros
2
0
W
11.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
4
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Águilas Doradas
2
1
W
H2H: Jaguares vs Atletico Nacional
07.04.26
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
1
L
25.10.24
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
31.08.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
27.03.24
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
0
L
30.07.23
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
1
L
04.02.23
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
11.09.22
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
18.03.22
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
3
1
L
31.10.21
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
0
D
02.07.21
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
2
D
25.03.21
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
3
1
L
02.02.20
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
1
2
W
28.07.19
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
1
D
03.02.19
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
1
0
L
Last matches: Jaguares
02.05.26
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
2
0
W
17.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
2
3
L
02.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Millonarios
1
0
W
23.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Junior
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Santa Fe
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
29.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional de Bogota
2
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
23.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Huila
2
2
D
15.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
1
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional Palmira
1
0
W
27.10.25
Pri
Jaguares
Popayan
1
1
D
11.10.25
Pri
Jaguares
Leones FC
4
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Jaguares
Real Cartagena
2
1
W
14.09.25
Pri
Jaguares
Bogota FC
2
0
W
31.08.25
Pri
Jaguares
Quindio
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Jaguares
Barranquilla
2
1
W
11.08.25
Pri
Jaguares
Real Santander
1
0
W
H2H at home: Jaguares
19.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
31.08.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
04.02.23
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
11.09.22
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
31.10.21
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
0
D
28.07.19
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Nacional
03.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
01.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
3
2
W
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
26.03.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Cruz Azul
0
3
L
18.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Millonarios
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
4
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Águilas Doradas
2
1
W
02.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Santa Fe
2
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Cali
0
1
L
08.12.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
America de Cali
2
3
L
30.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
2
L
23.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
14.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
2
L
31.10.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Llaneros
3
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
2
2
D
H2H away: Atletico Nacional
19.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
3
W
31.08.24
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
2
W
04.02.23
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
2
1
L
11.09.22
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
1
W
31.10.21
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
0
D
28.07.19
H2H
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.75
Draw 3.67
Home 4.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.67
Over 2.5 1.89
Over 2.75 2.13
Over 3.0 2.56
Over 3.5 3.19
Over 4.5 6.13
Under 1.5 3.46
Under 2.0 2.71
Under 2.25 2.18
Under 2.5 1.89
Under 2.75 1.69
Under 3.0 1.49
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.80
Draw 3.50
Home 4.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.25
Home 4.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 2.50
Home 4.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 11.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.78
Draw 3.56
Home 4.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.31
Draw 2.14
Home 5.02
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.11
Draw 2.50
Home 4.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 1.75 1.32
Over 2.0 1.41
Over 2.25 1.67
Over 2.5 1.88
Over 2.75 2.08
Over 3.0 2.48
Over 3.25 2.72
Over 3.5 3.04
Over 3.75 3.72
Over 4.0 4.95
Over 4.25 5.30
Over 4.5 5.65
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 8.60
Under 0.75 8.05
Under 1.0 7.50
Under 1.25 4.44
Under 1.5 3.28
Under 1.75 2.97
Under 2.0 2.59
Under 2.25 2.13
Under 2.5 1.87
Under 2.75 1.63
Under 3.0 1.44
Under 3.25 1.36
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.79
Draw 3.60
Home 4.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.67
Over 2.5 1.89
Over 2.75 2.15
Over 3.0 2.60
Over 3.25 2.90
Over 3.5 3.20
Over 3.75 3.95
Over 4.0 5.30
Over 4.25 5.60
Over 4.5 5.80
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.0 2.50
Under 2.25 2.04
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 2.75 1.60
Under 3.0 1.42
Under 3.25 1.34
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.10
Under 4.5 1.09

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W L W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W L D W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L L D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D W L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
L D W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W W D L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W L D L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W L D L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D W L L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D D D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L W L D
Post season qualification