COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
02.08.2026 20:45
Estadio Jaraguay
Referee: Jose Bautista, Colombia
Jaguares
Match Timeline
Atletico Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
M. Moreno · Assist: A. Morelos
Atletico Nacional
19'
A. Sarmiento · Assist: M. Uribe
Atletico Nacional
32'
A. Morelos · Assist: A. Roman
Atletico Nacional
🔄
39'
Jopito ↔ J. Malagon
Jaguares
🔄
39'
D. Lopez ↔ J. Maza
Jaguares
🟨
56'
Carlos Henao
Jaguares
🟨
58'
Johan Hinestroza
Jaguares
🟥
67'
Andrés Román
Atletico Nacional
VAR
67'
Andrés Román
Atletico Nacional
🔄
72'
A. Morelos ↔ C. Arango
Atletico Nacional
🔄
73'
M. Moreno ↔ N. Rodriguez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
73'
A. Sarmiento ↔ S. Velasquez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
73'
E. Cardona ↔ J. Rengifo
Atletico Nacional
🔄
74'
W. De La Rosa ↔ J. Beltran
Jaguares
🔄
74'
J. Hinestroza ↔ C. Cantillo
Jaguares
🔄
81'
M. Uribe ↔ K. Parra Atehortua
Atletico Nacional
🔄
86'
E. Martinez ↔ D. Zuluaga
Jaguares
VAR
90+1'
Johar Mejía
Jaguares

Jaguares vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.6%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 31.7%
Draw 13.7%
Atletico Nacional Win 54.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1
Atletico Nacional1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
20 GF / 35 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
51 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
19
3.35
Shots on Goal
6.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 20 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 28 matches
Jaguares Statistic Atletico Nacional
5 Wins 18
3 Draws 1
12 Losses 9
20 Goals For 51
35 Goals Against 28
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 21
10 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 8
3.35 Shots On Goal 6.12
10.85 Total Shots 16.52
3.95 Corners 4.92
45.8% Ball Possession 56.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Jaguares's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Nacional. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 55 points while Jaguares sit 16 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares sit 16 with 18 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 20:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 55 points from 25 games, Atletico Nacional bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 18 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 49:21, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 2 times, Atletico Nacional won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:28 from Jaguares's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 2, draws 3, Atletico Nacional wins 10

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification