13.09.2026 22:15
Libertadores de America
Referee: Facundo Tello
Independiente
Match Timeline
San Lorenzo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini
San Lorenzo
7'
Juan Migue Arrayago · Assist: Santiago Gabriel Montiel
Independiente
🟨
26'
Iván Marcone
Independiente
🔄
45'
Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini ↔ Ezequiel Herrera
San Lorenzo
🔄
45'
Teo Rodríguez Pagano ↔ Mathías de Ritis
San Lorenzo
51'
Facundo Farías · Assist: Danilo Arboleda
San Lorenzo
🟨
65'
Santiago Gabriel Montiel
Independiente
🔄
72'
Matías Abaldo ↔ Josias Palais
Independiente
🔄
72'
Maximiliano Meza ↔ Lautaro Millán
Independiente
🔄
72'
Alexis·Cuello ↔ Enzo Alan Salas
San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
Iván Marcone ↔ Rubén David Martínez
Independiente
🔄
80'
Chimy Ávila ↔ Felipe Tempone
Independiente
🔄
80'
Carlos Manuel Insaurralde ↔ Juan Rattalino
San Lorenzo
🟨
86'
Guzman corujo
San Lorenzo
🔄
88'
Mateo Pérez Curci ↔ Iván Morales
Independiente
🟨
90+3'
Ezequiel Herrera
San Lorenzo

Independiente vs San Lorenzo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds 2.10
BTTS
No
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
2.10
BTTS No
71.7%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.40
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-0
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Independiente Win 64%
Draw 17.7%
San Lorenzo Win 18.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente1.13
San Lorenzo1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Independiente
WWDLW
38 GF / 35 GA
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WLDWL
24 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.78
14
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
4
4
Shots on Goal
3.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Independiente 28 matches
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 27 matches
Independiente Statistic San Lorenzo
12 Wins 9
7 Draws 10
9 Losses 8
38 Goals For 24
35 Goals Against 21
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.78
14 BTTS Yes 8
21 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 4
7 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 10
4 Shots On Goal 3.72
12.84 Total Shots 10.8
5.96 Corners 3.64
52.4% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Independiente's more proactive style and San Lorenzo's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward San Lorenzo. Independiente have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and San Lorenzo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Lorenzo having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 24 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 24:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (3 goals), Lautaro Millán (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo are currently 7 in the standings with 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Auzmendi (4 goals), A. Cuello (2 goals), E. Herrera (1 goals), with creative support from M. Reali (1 assists), Facundo Gulli (1 assists), Nahuel Barrios (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Independiente won 3 times, San Lorenzo won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from Independiente's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: Independiente 4-1-4-1 / San Lorenzo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Independiente wins 3, draws 6, San Lorenzo wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase