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30.09.2026 01:05
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: C. A. Betancur Gutierrez
Independiente Medellin
Match Timeline
Millonarios
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
24'
L. Escorcia
Millonarios
🟨
31'
Alfonso Simarra
Independiente Medellin
⚽
39'
H. Palacios · Assist: A. Martegani
Independiente Medellin
VAR
45+2'
Leonardo Castro
Millonarios
⚽
45'
L. Castro · Assist: D. Banguero
Millonarios
🔄
46'
C. Lucumi ↔ N. Erazo
Independiente Medellin
⚽
53'
N. Erazo · Assist: A. Martegani
Independiente Medellin
🔄
59'
J. Cuadrado ↔ D. Silva
Millonarios
🔄
59'
D. Ruiz ↔ A. Estupinan
Millonarios
🟨
68'
Francisco Chaverra
Millonarios
🟨
69'
Jorge Arias
Millonarios
🔄
71'
J. Montano ↔ J. Cordoba
Independiente Medellin
🟨
73'
Leonai
Millonarios
🔄
77'
Yony Gonzalez ↔ A. Davila
Independiente Medellin
🔄
78'
A. Martegani ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
82'
Leonai Souza ↔ D. Quintero
Millonarios
🔄
87'
L. Castro ↔ A. Llinas
Millonarios
🔄
87'
F. Chaverra ↔ S. Valencia
Millonarios
🟨
88'
Didier Moreno
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 49.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
49.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente Medellin Win 49.7%
Draw 12.1%
Millonarios Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin1.28
Millonarios1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
L W D L W
8 GF / 7 GA
Millonarios Millonarios
D W W D D
8 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
27
BTTS Yes
18
24
Over 2.5
15
4.58
Shots on Goal
5.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 40 matches
Millonarios Millonarios 35 matches
Independiente Medellin Statistic Millonarios
18 Wins 12
9 Draws 11
13 Losses 12
58 Goals For 47
51 Goals Against 36
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
27 BTTS Yes 18
31 Over 1.5 25
24 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 9
4.58 Shots On Goal 5.84
13.53 Total Shots 15.39
4.87 Corners 5.77
49.7% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Millonarios. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

Independiente Medellin are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:24 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Montaño (7 goals), J. Medina (3 goals), Y. González (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (4 assists), Frank Fabra (3 assists), Y. González (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Millonarios Analysis

Millonarios sit 10 with 26 points after 19 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Estupiñán (15 goals), R. Contreras (10 goals), L. Castro (8 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Valencia Isaza (4 assists), A. Estupiñán (3 assists), F. Chaverra (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Medellin won 2 times, Millonarios won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:6 from Independiente Medellin's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1 / Millonarios 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente Medellin wins 2, draws 2, Millonarios wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W L W D
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D W D D D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W L L D L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D L W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D D W W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L L D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W D D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D W D D D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L L L W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L W D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
L L D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L D D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W L L W L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W D L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L W W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D W D D L
Post season qualification