COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
01.08.2026 23:10
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua, Colombia
Independiente Medellin
Match Timeline
Deportivo Cali
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
K. Klinger ↔ J. Medina
Independiente Medellin
🔄
61'
J. Dinenno ↔ N. Benedetti
Deportivo Cali
🔄
61'
J. Moya ↔ R. Pajaro
Deportivo Cali
🔄
64'
H. Palacios ↔ E. Mena Perea
Independiente Medellin
🔄
64'
J. Cordoba ↔ J. Montano
Independiente Medellin
🔄
67'
J. Martinez ↔ K. Suarez
Deportivo Cali
🟨
72'
Gustavo Cuéllar
Deportivo Cali
🟨
78'
Agustín Martegani
Independiente Medellin
🟨
78'
John Edwin Montaño
Independiente Medellin
🔄
83'
D. Catano ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🟨
88'
Didier Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
88'
A. Martegani ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
88'
L. Chaverra ↔ F. Viafara
Deportivo Cali
90'
D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente Medellin Win 42.8%
Draw 20.4%
Deportivo Cali Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin1.14
Deportivo Cali1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WWDLW
44 GF / 40 GA
Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali
WLDWL
24 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
22
BTTS Yes
8
18
Over 2.5
5
4.45
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 31 matches
Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 22 matches
Independiente Medellin Statistic Deportivo Cali
13 Wins 9
8 Draws 7
10 Losses 6
44 Goals For 24
40 Goals Against 16
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
22 BTTS Yes 8
24 Over 1.5 13
18 Over 2.5 5
9 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 7
4.45 Shots On Goal 4
13.59 Total Shots 12.65
5.24 Corners 5.15
50.7% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente Medellin expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Cali in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Cali having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Deportivo Cali.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

So far, Independiente Medellin have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 26:24 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Cali Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Deportivo Cali have collected 27 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 20:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Medellin won 5 times, Deportivo Cali won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from Independiente Medellin's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.6%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Cali 5-3-2
H2H summary: Independiente Medellin wins 5, draws 6, Deportivo Cali wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification