BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independência Win 43.7%
Draw 12%
Manauara Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independência1.22
Manauara1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independência Independência
WWDLW
17 GF / 10 GA
Manauara Manauara
WLDWL
13 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.5
6
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independência Independência 10 matches
Manauara Manauara 10 matches
Independência Statistic Manauara
4 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 0
17 Goals For 13
10 Goals Against 5
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.5
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 5
6 Over 2.5 2
3 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Manauara carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 22 points while Independência sit 4 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Manauara. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Manauara having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independência Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Independência arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 15 points after 10 matches. The return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 17:10 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Pitel (6 goals), Caique Gomes (4 goals), Biel (3 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Manauara Analysis

Manauara come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 22 points from 10 matches. With 6 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 13:5, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Independência won 1 times, Manauara won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Independência's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88%)
H2H summary: Independência wins 1, draws 1, Manauara wins 0
Last matches: Independência
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
0
1
L
Last matches: Manauara
14.06.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
4
2
W
19.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
04.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Independência
1
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
Manauara
GAS
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Águia de Marabá
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Humaitá
2
2
D
H2H: Independência vs Manauara
27.07.25
H2H
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.04.25
H2H
Manauara
Independência
1
1
D
Last matches: Independência
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
28.05.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
4
1
W
27.04.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
H2H at home: Independência
27.07.25
H2H
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
Last matches: Manauara
31.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
1
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
0
D
04.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Independência
1
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Águia de Marabá
1
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Humaitá
2
2
D
01.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Trem
3
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
26.04.25
Ser
Manauara
GAS
2
1
W
H2H away: Manauara
27.07.25
H2H
Independência
Manauara
2
1
L

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)