WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
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Estadio Malvinas Argentinas
Referee: A. Rojas

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds 2.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
2.50
BTTS Yes
63.2%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
2.82
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Independ. Rivadavia Win 67.4%
Draw 5.8%
Fluminense Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independ. Rivadavia1.48
Fluminense1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WWDLW
53 GF / 29 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
49 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.53
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
20
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
15
4.83
Shots on Goal
5.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 31 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 32 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Statistic Fluminense
19 Wins 14
7 Draws 11
5 Losses 7
53 Goals For 49
29 Goals Against 36
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
20 BTTS Yes 22
24 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 6
4.83 Shots On Goal 5.47
14 Total Shots 15.17
4.41 Corners 5.27
47% Ball Possession 60.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Fluminense controlled more possession in the first leg (72% against 28%). Independ. Rivadavia were also more accurate in attack, recording 3 shots on target to 2. Fluminense circulated the ball more often, making 612 passes to 221 and completing 550. Independ. Rivadavia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Fluminense in 2 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independ. Rivadavia expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia enter this tie with a season profile built on 16 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 15:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Arce (8 goals), S. Villa (3 goals), D. Crego (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Fernández (4 assists), S. Villa (3 assists), J. I. Florentin Bobadilla (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense enter this tie with a season profile built on 8 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. With 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 7:7, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on John Kennedy (2 goals), A. Canobbio (1 goals), Guilherme Arana (1 goals), with creative support from J. Savarino (1 assists), Martinelli (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Independ. Rivadavia won 1 times, Fluminense won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Independ. Rivadavia's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independ. Rivadavia wins 1, draws 2, Fluminense wins 0
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
15.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Belgrano Cordoba
0
2
L
11.08.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
0
0
D
08.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
03.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
2
L
30.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
12.07.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia M.
5
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
3
1
W
07.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
1
0
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Rosario Central
2
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense
15.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
3
2
W
11.08.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
H2H: Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense
11.08.26
H2H
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
07.05.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
16.04.26
H2H
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
W
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
08.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
30.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
12.07.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
1
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia M.
5
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
3
1
W
07.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Rosario Central
2
0
W
12.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Barracas Central
1
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
River Plate
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
3
2
W
15.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Belgrano Cordoba
0
1
L
04.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
2
1
W
18.01.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
CA Estudiantes
2
0
W
H2H at home: Independ. Rivadavia
07.05.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
Last matches: Fluminense
09.08.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
07.05.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.88
Home 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.06
Draw 1.93
Home 3.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.55
Over 1.75 1.72
Over 2.0 2.07
Over 2.25 2.44
Over 2.5 2.82
Over 3.5 5.77
Under 0.5 6.04
Under 1.5 2.43
Under 1.75 2.10
Under 2.0 1.78
Under 2.25 1.55
Under 2.5 1.42
Under 3.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 3.00
Home 2.38
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 1.91
Home 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.10
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.53
Over 2.5 2.70
Over 3.5 5.50
Over 4.5 13.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.5 2.38
Under 2.5 1.44
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.96
Home 2.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.15
Draw 1.80
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.58
Draw 2.12
Home 2.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 0.75 1.11
Over 1.0 1.14
Over 1.25 1.37
Over 1.5 1.58
Over 1.75 1.75
Over 2.0 1.94
Over 2.25 2.24
Over 2.5 2.57
Over 2.75 3.08
Over 3.0 4.25
Over 3.25 4.65
Over 3.5 5.05
Over 3.75 6.90
Over 4.0 8.90
Over 4.5 11.50
Over 5.5 22.00
Under 0.5 5.80
Under 0.75 5.28
Under 1.0 4.65
Under 1.25 3.22
Under 1.5 2.45
Under 1.75 2.13
Under 2.0 1.74
Under 2.25 1.52
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 2.75 1.28
Under 3.0 1.15
Under 3.25 1.12
Under 3.5 1.10
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.00
Home 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 1.88
Home 3.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 2.25
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.5 1.52
Over 2.0 1.95
Over 2.5 2.63
Over 3.5 5.40
Over 4.5 11.50
Under 0.5 6.75
Under 1.5 2.48
Under 2.0 1.84
Under 2.5 1.47
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 4.5 1.02

Standings

Group C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 15:6 9 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
W W D L L
3 6 1 2 3 6:8 -2 5
L L D W D
4 6 0 3 3 6:13 -7 3
L L D L D
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals