BRAZIL SERIE D
31.05.2026 21:00
Humaitá
Match Timeline
Independência
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
Pitel
Independência
29'
Pitel
Independência
36'
Pitel
Independência
75'
Pitel
Independência

Humaitá vs Independência Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 41.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
41.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Humaitá Win 16.1%
Draw 30.5%
Independência Win 53.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Humaitá0.7
Independência2.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Humaitá Humaitá
WWDLW
4 GF / 33 GA
Independência Independência
WLDWL
11 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.38
4.13
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Humaitá Humaitá 8 matches
Independência Independência 8 matches
Humaitá Statistic Independência
0 Wins 3
0 Draws 2
8 Losses 3
4 Goals For 11
33 Goals Against 8
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
4.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 6
7 Over 2.5 4
6 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independência's more proactive style and Humaitá's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independência carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 11 points while Humaitá sit 6 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Humaitá have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Independência having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independência.

Humaitá Analysis

Humaitá approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 0 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 4:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Monteiro (2 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independência Analysis

Placed 4 with 11 points from 8 outings, Independência continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Caique Gomes (3 goals), Biel (2 goals), Pitel (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Humaitá won 6 times, Independência won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:17 from Humaitá's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.45 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (83.9%)
H2H summary: Humaitá wins 6, draws 2, Independência wins 3

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)