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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
18.10.2026 15:15
Stade Jean Bouin
Referee: Bastein Dechepy

Paris FC vs Rennes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds 2.34
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.4%
2.34 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
2.25 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
1.69 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Paris FC Win 70.4%
Draw 10.7%
Rennes Win 18.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris FC1.49
Rennes1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris FC Paris FC
WWDLW
15 GF / 15 GA
Rennes Rennes
WLDWL
27 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.69
5
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
13
4.33
Shots on Goal
6.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris FC Paris FC 11 matches
Rennes Rennes 16 matches
Paris FC Statistic Rennes
4 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 6
15 Goals For 27
15 Goals Against 27
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.69
5 BTTS Yes 12
7 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
4.33 Shots On Goal 6.38
13.83 Total Shots 18.75
4 Corners 6.75
51.8% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Paris FC's more proactive style and Rennes's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rennes. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paris FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rennes in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rennes having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Paris FC Analysis

Paris FC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 11 points after 6 outings. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 8:4, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through L. Sinayoko (4 goals), I. Kebbal (1 goals), P. Pagis (1 goals), with creative support from L. Sinayoko (1 assists), I. Kebbal (1 assists), P. Pagis (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Rennes Analysis

So far, Rennes have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 10 points from 5 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:9 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Lepaul (3 goals), A. Thomasson (1 goals), P. Frankowski (1 goals), with creative support from A. Thomasson (2 assists), P. Frankowski (1 assists), S. Szymański (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Paris FC won 0 times, Rennes won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Paris FC's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Paris FC 4-2-3-1 / Rennes 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Paris FC 3, Rennes 0
H2H summary: Paris FC wins 0, draws 0, Rennes wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10 6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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