🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
30.08.2026 00:30
Shell Energy Stadium
Referee: P. Lauziere
Houston Dynamo
Match Timeline
San Jose Earthquakes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
58'
Reid Roberts
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
61'
F. Negri ↔ I. Aliyu
Houston Dynamo
🔄
69'
D. Romney ↔ M. Floriani
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
73'
B. Leroux ↔ N. Fernandez
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
73'
P. Marie ↔ P. Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
75'
H. Herrera ↔ D. McGuire
Houston Dynamo
🔄
82'
J. Ricketts ↔ J. Jasinski
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
83'
Felipe Andrade ↔ D. Holmes
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90+1'
J. McGlynn ↔ A. Bouzat
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90+1'
E. Lowen ↔ Vitor Costa
San Jose Earthquakes
🔄
90+1'
N. Tsakiris ↔ I. Harkes
San Jose Earthquakes

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.51
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.9%
1.62
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.51
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.5%
1.54
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
6.75
Probability Distribution
Houston Dynamo Win 70.9%
Draw 4.6%
San Jose Earthquakes Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Houston Dynamo1.62
San Jose Earthquakes1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WWDLW
51 GF / 36 GA
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WLDWL
46 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
15
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
15
4.71
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 30 matches
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 26 matches
Houston Dynamo Statistic San Jose Earthquakes
19 Wins 13
4 Draws 3
7 Losses 10
51 Goals For 46
36 Goals Against 39
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
15 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 12
11 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 4
4.71 Shots On Goal 5.14
13.19 Total Shots 13.29
4.19 Corners 6.24
46.4% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Houston Dynamo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring San Jose Earthquakes.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 38 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 12 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a 29:24 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Guilherme (6 goals), Mateusz Bogusz (3 goals), Lawrence Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (2 assists), Lawrence Ennali (2 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

With 33 points from 20 games and a place of 4, San Jose Earthquakes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 38:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Preston Judd (9 goals), Timo Werner (4 goals), Ousseni Bouda (3 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (4 assists), Paul Marie (4 assists), Preston Judd (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo won 8 times, San Jose Earthquakes won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:22 from Houston Dynamo's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 / San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Houston Dynamo 3, San Jose Earthquakes 7
H2H summary: Houston Dynamo wins 8, draws 4, San Jose Earthquakes wins 3

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)