CROATIA HNL
19.09.2026 15:00
Stadion HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
HNK Rijeka Win 39.9%
Draw 10.6%
HNK Hajduk Split Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Rijeka1.19
HNK Hajduk Split1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
WWDLW
25 GF / 17 GA
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
WLDWL
49 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
2.33
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
8
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
13
5.5
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 17 matches
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 21 matches
HNK Rijeka Statistic HNK Hajduk Split
10 Wins 16
3 Draws 2
4 Losses 3
25 Goals For 49
17 Goals Against 16
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 2.33
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
8 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 18
7 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 12
3 Failed To Score 1
5.5 Shots On Goal 4.47
11.17 Total Shots 8.8
5.58 Corners 4.27
48.2% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HNK Hajduk Split look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HNK Hajduk Split.

HNK Rijeka Analysis

HNK Rijeka approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 10 points after 5 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 9:6 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on D. Adu-Adjei (3 goals), T. Fruk (2 goals), S. Vignato (1 goals), with creative support from T. Fruk (3 assists), Tiago Dantas (2 assists), D. Adu-Adjei (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

HNK Hajduk Split Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 13 points after 6 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Šego (4 goals), M. Livaja (3 goals), M. Šotiček (2 goals), with creative support from Dali (3 assists), Š. Hrgović (2 assists), Adrion Pajaziti (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Rijeka won 8 times, HNK Hajduk Split won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:12 from HNK Rijeka's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1 / HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HNK Rijeka wins 8, draws 4, HNK Hajduk Split wins 3

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 16:5 11 16
W W W W W
2 7 5 0 2 17:11 6 15
W L W L W
3 7 4 2 1 13:7 6 14
D D W L W
4 6 4 1 1 14:7 7 13
L W D W W
5 6 3 2 1 10:7 3 11
D W D W L
6 7 2 3 2 14:12 2 9
W D D L W
7 7 2 1 4 9:13 -4 7
D L L L L
8 7 2 0 5 5:14 -9 6
L W L W L
9 7 1 0 6 8:22 -14 3
L L L W L
10 7 0 2 5 4:12 -8 2
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL