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25.10.2026 13:00
Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HJK Helsinki Win 66%
Draw 4.3%
KuPS Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
HJK Helsinki1.55
KuPS1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WWDLW
69 GF / 41 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
56 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.92
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
20
22
Over 2.5
13
2.28
Shots on Goal
2.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 36 matches
KuPS KuPS 40 matches
HJK Helsinki Statistic KuPS
19 Wins 18
7 Draws 12
10 Losses 10
69 Goals For 56
41 Goals Against 40
1.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 20
28 Over 1.5 29
22 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 8
15 Clean Sheets 14
7 Failed To Score 9
2.28 Shots On Goal 2.7
5.78 Total Shots 6.84
2.06 Corners 3.24
25.7% Ball Possession 32.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KuPS. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 37 points after 22 outings. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 36:27, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Borchers (10 goals), L. Montano (1 goals), P. Mentu (1 goals), with creative support from L. Montano (2 assists), M. Borchers (1 assists), P. Mentu (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 43 points after 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, while the 38:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Luyeye-Lutumba (3 goals), G. Engvall (1 goals), T. Jyry (1 goals), with creative support from P. Pennanen (2 assists), J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 assists), G. Engvall (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1 / KuPS 4-2-3-1

Standings

Champion Group
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 10 4 34:20 14 52
L W D W W
2 28 15 6 7 53:32 21 51
W W W D D
3
KuPS Away
28 14 9 5 43:26 17 51
W L L W D
4 28 11 9 8 40:37 3 42
L L D D W
5 28 12 4 12 32:34 -2 40
W L W L L
6 28 11 6 11 31:33 -2 39
L W L L L
Qualifying
Qualifying