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09.10.2026 18:45
Bridge Meadow Stadium
Referee: A. Jones
Haverfordwest County AFC
Match Timeline
Caernarfon Town
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
Z. Clarke
Caernarfon Town
🟨
35'
C. Twose
Haverfordwest County AFC
🟨
38'
J. Owen
Haverfordwest County AFC
🟨
52'
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
🟨
54'
G. Walters
Haverfordwest County AFC
🔄
67'
R. Abbruzzese ↔ L. Rees
Haverfordwest County AFC
🔄
67'
H. Thomas ↔ B. Ahmun
Haverfordwest County AFC
🟨
71'
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
🟥
80'
L. Rees
Haverfordwest County AFC
🔄
80'
J. Canavan ↔ P. Mendes
Caernarfon Town
🔄
80'
Z. Clarke ↔ S. Bradley
Caernarfon Town
⚽
83'
B. Ahmun
Haverfordwest County AFC
⚽
85'
S. Bradley
Caernarfon Town
🔄
88'
C. Twose ↔ O. Jones
Haverfordwest County AFC
🔄
90+1'
A. Cieslewicz ↔ D. Smith
Caernarfon Town

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Haverfordwest County AFC Win 30.1%
Draw 11.2%
Caernarfon Town Win 58.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Haverfordwest County AFC1.35
Caernarfon Town2.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC
WWDLW
18 GF / 22 GA
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
WLDWL
37 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
2.47
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
4
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC 16 matches
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 15 matches
Haverfordwest County AFC Statistic Caernarfon Town
6 Wins 8
1 Draws 2
9 Losses 5
18 Goals For 37
22 Goals Against 25
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 2.47
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
4 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Caernarfon Town's more proactive style and Haverfordwest County AFC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Caernarfon Town carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 23 points while Haverfordwest County AFC sit 12 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Haverfordwest County AFC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Caernarfon Town. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caernarfon Town having the stronger overall control.

Haverfordwest County AFC Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC sit 12 with 10 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats with a 7:17 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caernarfon Town Analysis

Caernarfon Town come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 23 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 35:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Haverfordwest County AFC won 4 times, Caernarfon Town won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Haverfordwest County AFC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
H2H summary: Haverfordwest County AFC wins 4, draws 7, Caernarfon Town wins 4

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 12 1 0 44:6 38 37
W W W W W
2 13 10 1 2 30:9 21 31
W W W W W
3 13 9 3 1 25:11 14 30
W L W W W
4 13 8 2 3 37:15 22 26
W L D W D
5 13 8 1 4 22:15 7 25
W L W W W
6 13 8 1 4 28:23 5 25
L W L L D
7 13 6 3 4 24:16 8 21
L W W D L
8 13 7 0 6 25:18 7 21
W W L W L
9 13 5 3 5 21:33 -12 18
L L W L W
10 13 5 1 7 22:23 -1 16
L L L L D
11 13 3 3 7 12:22 -10 12
L W D D L
12 13 3 1 9 8:19 -11 10
L L L L W
13 13 2 3 8 10:32 -22 9
W W L L D
14 13 2 2 9 12:25 -13 8
L W W L L
15 13 1 3 9 8:31 -23 6
W L L D L
16 13 0 2 11 14:44 -30 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)