GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
06.09.2026 13:30
Volksparkstadion
Referee: Tobias Reichel, Germany
Hamburger SV
Match Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Sheraldo Becker
FSV Mainz 05
19'
S. Becker · Assist: K. Sano
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
31'
Anthony Caci
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
36'
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Hamburger SV
41'
P. Mwene · Assist: S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
J. Torunarigha ↔ S. Nandja
Hamburger SV
🔄
46'
B. Nadir ↔ F. Vieira
Hamburger SV
🔄
46'
M. Adeline ↔ P. Daka
Hamburger SV
48'
P. Tietz · Assist: S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
64'
T. Moffi ↔ O. Stange
Hamburger SV
🔄
68'
S. Becker ↔ R. Konigsdorffer
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
81'
A. Caci ↔ D. da Costa
FSV Mainz 05
83'
P. Tietz · Assist: Lee Jae-Sung
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
84'
D. Wolfe ↔ L. Lemke
Hamburger SV
🟨
85'
Phillipp Mwene
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
K. Sano ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
Lee Jae-Sung ↔ O. Ruoppi
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
S. Posch ↔ R. Nakuzola
FSV Mainz 05
90'
R. Konigsdorffer · Assist: P. Mwene
FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds 2.48
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.7%
2.48
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.90
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Hamburger SV Win 20.9%
Draw 3.4%
FSV Mainz 05 Win 75.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hamburger SV1.23
FSV Mainz 053.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
WWDLW
10 GF / 11 GA
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WLDWL
38 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
4.22
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
5
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
7
3
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 6 matches
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 9 matches
Hamburger SV Statistic FSV Mainz 05
2 Wins 7
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 0
10 Goals For 38
11 Goals Against 5
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 4.22
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 1
3 Shots On Goal 4
8 Total Shots 21
1 Corners 11
44% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hamburger SV won 5 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Hamburger SV's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1 / FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Missing players: Hamburger SV 3, FSV Mainz 05 5
H2H summary: Hamburger SV wins 5, draws 5, FSV Mainz 05 wins 5

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 4 4 0 0 9:2 7 12
W W W W
2 4 3 1 0 14:2 12 10
W W D W
3 4 3 1 0 12:3 9 10
D W W W
4 4 2 1 1 11:6 5 7
L D W W
5 4 2 1 1 10:6 4 7
W L W D
6 4 2 1 1 8:8 0 7
W D W L
7 3 2 0 1 9:3 6 6
W L W
8 3 2 0 1 8:7 1 6
L W W
9 4 1 2 1 9:10 -1 5
D W L D
10 3 1 1 1 8:5 3 4
D W L
11 3 1 1 1 3:4 -1 4
W D L
12 4 1 1 2 6:9 -3 4
L D L W
13 3 1 0 2 6:7 -1 3
W L L
14 4 1 0 3 6:9 -3 3
L L W L
15 4 1 0 3 2:13 -11 3
W L L L
16 3 0 1 2 0:4 -4 1
L L D
17 4 0 1 3 4:17 -13 1
L L L D
18 4 0 0 4 6:16 -10 0
L L L L
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