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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
06.09.2026 13:30
Volksparkstadion
Referee: Tobias Reichel, Germany
Hamburger SV
Match Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Sheraldo Becker
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
19'
S. Becker · Assist: K. Sano
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
31'
Anthony Caci
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
36'
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Hamburger SV
⚽
41'
P. Mwene · Assist: S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
J. Torunarigha ↔ S. Nandja
Hamburger SV
🔄
46'
B. Nadir ↔ F. Vieira
Hamburger SV
🔄
46'
M. Adeline ↔ P. Daka
Hamburger SV
⚽
48'
P. Tietz · Assist: S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
64'
T. Moffi ↔ O. Stange
Hamburger SV
🔄
68'
S. Becker ↔ R. Konigsdorffer
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
81'
A. Caci ↔ D. da Costa
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
83'
P. Tietz · Assist: Lee Jae-Sung
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
84'
D. Wolfe ↔ L. Lemke
Hamburger SV
🟨
85'
Phillipp Mwene
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
K. Sano ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
Lee Jae-Sung ↔ O. Ruoppi
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
88'
S. Posch ↔ R. Nakuzola
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
90'
R. Konigsdorffer · Assist: P. Mwene
FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Hamburger SV Win 20.9%
Draw 3.4%
FSV Mainz 05 Win 75.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hamburger SV1.23
FSV Mainz 053.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
WWDLW
10 GF / 11 GA
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WLDWL
38 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
4.22
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
5
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
7
3
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 6 matches
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 9 matches
Hamburger SV Statistic FSV Mainz 05
2 Wins 7
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 0
10 Goals For 38
11 Goals Against 5
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 4.22
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 1
3 Shots On Goal 4
8 Total Shots 21
1 Corners 11
44% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hamburger SV won 5 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Hamburger SV's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1 / FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Missing players: Hamburger SV 3, FSV Mainz 05 5
H2H summary: Hamburger SV wins 5, draws 5, FSV Mainz 05 wins 5

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 14:4 10 13
W D W W W
2 5 4 1 0 11:4 7 13
D W W W W
3 5 3 2 0 16:4 12 11
D W W D W
4 5 3 1 1 14:8 6 10
W W D W L
5 5 3 0 2 15:5 10 9
W L W L W
6 5 2 2 1 13:8 5 8
D L D W W
7 5 2 2 1 10:10 0 8
D W D W L
8 5 2 1 2 13:10 3 7
L W L W D
9 5 2 1 2 8:8 0 7
L D L W W
10 5 2 1 2 8:10 -2 7
W L D L W
11 5 2 0 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L W L
12 5 2 0 3 5:15 -10 6
W W L L L
13 5 1 2 2 4:6 -2 5
L D W D L
14 5 1 2 2 9:16 -7 5
L D W L D
15 5 1 1 3 3:7 -4 4
L W L L D
16 5 1 1 3 5:17 -12 4
W L L L D
17 5 1 0 4 9:13 -4 3
L L W L L
18 5 0 0 5 7:18 -11 0
L L L L L
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