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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
13.10.2026 15:00
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: K. Kulljastinen
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Kalju Nomme
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
M. Podholjuzin
Kalju Nomme
⚽
33'
S. Viidas · Assist: S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
38'
U. Korre
Kalju Nomme
🔄
46'
I. Jabir ↔ T. Baptista
Kalju Nomme
🔄
46'
U. Korre ↔ M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🟨
48'
A. Borolinstsikov
Kalju Nomme
⚽
53'
M. Mannilaan
Kalju Nomme
🔄
56'
A. Borolinstsikov ↔ A. Nikolajev
Kalju Nomme
🟨
66'
S. Viidas
Vaprus
🔄
68'
N. Ivanov ↔ E. E. Lotar Eyang
Kalju Nomme
⚽
72'
S. Viidas · Assist: M. Villota
Vaprus
🔄
73'
S. Viidas ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
73'
S. Kapper ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
86'
O. Musolitin ↔ D. Mashchenko
Kalju Nomme
⚽
87'
E. E. Lotar Eyang · Assist: M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
87'
M. Villota ↔ M. Villota
Vaprus

Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.7%
1.18 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.03 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
23.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 49.8%
Draw 4.3%
Kalju Nomme Win 45.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.44
Kalju Nomme1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
60 GF / 71 GA
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WLDWL
79 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.84
1.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
23
BTTS Yes
24
25
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 36 matches
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 43 matches
Vaprus Statistic Kalju Nomme
12 Wins 21
6 Draws 9
18 Losses 13
60 Goals For 79
71 Goals Against 47
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
1.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
23 BTTS Yes 24
31 Over 1.5 34
25 Over 2.5 22
18 Over 3.5 13
7 Clean Sheets 14
8 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kalju Nomme's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kalju Nomme. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Kalju Nomme carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 50 points while Vaprus sit 7 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kalju Nomme having the stronger overall control.

Vaprus Analysis

With 34 points from 29 games and a place of 7, Vaprus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 15 defeats with a 39:57 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

Kalju Nomme approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 50 points from 29 matches. Their record of 15 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 52:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 3 times, Kalju Nomme won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:31 from Vaprus's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 3, draws 3, Kalju Nomme wins 8

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 6 1 85:22 63 78
W W D W W
2 31 18 1 12 60:44 16 55
L L W W D
3 31 16 6 9 50:38 12 54
W L W W L
4 32 15 6 11 54:33 21 51
L D L W W
5 31 15 2 14 42:49 -7 47
L W L L W
6 31 13 2 16 43:47 -4 41
W W D W L
7 31 10 6 15 43:61 -18 36
D D L L L
8 31 10 5 16 34:49 -15 35
W W D L L
9 32 10 1 21 50:74 -24 31
W L L L L
10 31 5 5 21 24:68 -44 20
L D D L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga