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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
26.10.2026 16:00

Grobiņa vs Riga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Grobiņa Win 33.9%
Draw 12%
Riga Win 54.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grobiņa1.01
Riga2.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WWDLW
39 GF / 68 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
122 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
0.98
Average Goals Scored
2.44
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
21
BTTS Yes
32
15
Over 2.5
36
2.25
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grobiņa Grobiņa 40 matches
Riga Riga 50 matches
Grobiņa Statistic Riga
8 Wins 34
14 Draws 11
18 Losses 5
39 Goals For 122
68 Goals Against 53
0.98 Avg Goals Scored 2.44
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
21 BTTS Yes 32
29 Over 1.5 44
15 Over 2.5 36
12 Over 3.5 24
7 Clean Sheets 17
15 Failed To Score 3
2.25 Shots On Goal 3.8
8.25 Total Shots 8.07
3.25 Corners 4.13
18.8% Ball Possession 35.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and Grobiņa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Riga. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Grobiņa expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Riga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Riga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 79 points while Grobiņa sit 8 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Riga look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa are currently 8 in the standings with 29 points from 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 11 draws, and 16 losses, while the 25:56 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Davids Druzinins (1 goals), Dodo (1 goals), Hirotaka Yamada (1 goals), with creative support from Milan Corryn (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Riga come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 79 points after 33 matches. They have recorded 24 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a 90:31 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Iago Siqueira Augusto (1 goals), Muhammed Badamosi (1 goals), with creative support from Raki Aouani (1 assists), Coli Saco (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 11 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa won 0 times, Riga won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:32 from Grobiņa's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.09 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88%)
Predicted formations: Grobiņa 4-4-2 / Riga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Grobiņa wins 0, draws 1, Riga wins 10

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 25 5 2 79:24 55 80
W W D W D
2
Riga Away
33 24 7 2 90:31 59 79
W W W W D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 33 13 7 13 46:46 0 46
W L D D D
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 33 11 5 17 32:47 -15 38
L L W L L
7 33 8 8 17 34:56 -22 32
L L L D L
8 33 6 11 16 25:56 -31 29
W L D D L
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 33 4 6 23 33:81 -48 18
L L W L D