05.09.2026 19:30
Victor Legrotaglie
Referee: D. Herrera
Gimnasia M.
Match Timeline
Boca Juniors
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Kevin Zenón
Boca Juniors
17'
A. Velasco · Assist: T. Belmonte
Boca Juniors
19'
I. Sabatini · Assist: F. Antonini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
20'
T. O'Connor ↔ M. Vargas
Gimnasia M.
🟨
37'
Luciano Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
38'
K. Zenon · Assist: D. Gorosito
Boca Juniors
🟨
57'
Nicolás Figal
Boca Juniors
🔄
59'
A. Velasco ↔ Carlos Palacios
Boca Juniors
🟨
65'
Carlos Palacios
Boca Juniors
🔄
68'
M. Satas ↔ L. Blanco
Boca Juniors
🔄
68'
M. Pellegrino ↔ F. Herrera
Boca Juniors
🟨
70'
Lautaro Blanco
Boca Juniors
VAR
71'
Ignacio Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
78'
K. Zenon ↔ L. Di Lollo
Boca Juniors
🔄
78'
T. Belmonte ↔ W. H. Alarcon Cepeda
Boca Juniors
🔄
80'
L. Paredes ↔ I. Cortez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
80'
F. Antonini ↔ N. Barboza
Gimnasia M.
🔄
81'
L. Cingolani ↔ V. Simoni
Gimnasia M.
🔄
90+1'
D. Mondino ↔ B. Andrada
Gimnasia M.
90'
E. Fernandez
Gimnasia M.

Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds 3.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds 2.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
3.33
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
2.43
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
1.38
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia M. Win 56.8%
Draw 3.7%
Boca Juniors Win 39.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia M.0.94
Boca Juniors1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WWDLW
26 GF / 27 GA
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WLDWL
44 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.72
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
11
3.91
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 24 matches
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 36 matches
Gimnasia M. Statistic Boca Juniors
10 Wins 16
5 Draws 13
9 Losses 7
26 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 26
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.72
10 BTTS Yes 15
13 Over 1.5 23
9 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 17
8 Failed To Score 8
3.91 Shots On Goal 4.47
11.3 Total Shots 13.67
3.65 Corners 5.27
43.9% Ball Possession 57.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Boca Juniors's more proactive style and Gimnasia M.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia M. expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Boca Juniors in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boca Juniors having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Boca Juniors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Boca Juniors carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Gimnasia M. sit 11 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Gimnasia M. have collected 19 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustín Modica (8 goals), Luciano Cingolani (2 goals), Facundo Lencioni (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Lencioni (2 assists), Ignacio Sabatini (2 assists), Tomás O'Connor (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 30 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, while the 22:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Milton Giménez (4 goals), Alan Velasco (3 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), with creative support from Tomás Aranda (3 assists), Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Exequiel Zeballos (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia M. won 0 times, Boca Juniors won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Gimnasia M.'s perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia M. 4-1-4-1 / Boca Juniors 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gimnasia M. wins 0, draws 1, Boca Juniors wins 0

Standings

Clausura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 13:7 6 22
W W L W D
2 10 5 3 2 13:11 2 18
D W L W W
3 10 5 2 3 14:9 5 17
D L D W W
4 9 4 5 0 12:7 5 17
D W D D D
5 10 4 5 1 14:11 3 17
W W D W D
6 10 5 2 3 10:8 2 17
W D W L D
7 10 4 4 2 11:8 3 16
W D D D W
8 9 4 1 4 11:8 3 13
W W L D L
9 10 4 1 5 17:16 1 13
L L W W W
10 10 3 2 5 4:8 -4 11
L D W L D
11 9 3 1 5 9:9 0 10
W L D L W
12 10 2 4 4 8:10 -2 10
D L D D D
13 10 2 3 5 9:15 -6 9
L L D L W
14 10 2 2 6 11:17 -6 8
L W L D D
15 10 2 2 6 7:13 -6 8
D L L D L
Knockout Phase