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03.10.2026 13:30
Essity Stadium
Referee: I. A. Griffith
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Match Timeline
Penybont
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
T. Mehew
Penybont
🟨
56'
D. Barrow
Penybont
🟨
59'
D. Jefferies
Penybont
🔄
60'
J. Jones ↔ R. Watson
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🟨
64'
L. Shephard
Penybont
🔄
72'
T. Walker ↔ C. Venables
Penybont
🔄
72'
D. Barrow ↔ E. Cann
Penybont
🔄
75'
F. Deane ↔ A. Sharif
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
75'
M. Woodcock ↔ F. Redshaw
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
75'
J. Hodkin ↔ H. Mehasseb
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🟨
82'
M. Manga
Penybont
🟨
83'
E. Vaughan
Penybont
⚽
88'
H. Mehasseb
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
90'
I. Murray ↔ C. Partridge
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
90+2'
M. Manga ↔ I. Phillips
Penybont

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
GAP Connah S Quay FC Win 43%
Draw 14.6%
Penybont Win 42.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.57
Penybont1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC
WWDLW
30 GF / 12 GA
Penybont Penybont
WLDWL
25 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.79
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
7
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC 15 matches
Penybont Penybont 14 matches
GAP Connah S Quay FC Statistic Penybont
9 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 2
30 Goals For 25
12 Goals Against 13
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
7 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Penybont having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Penybont. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Penybont look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

GAP Connah S Quay FC Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 22 points after 10 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 23:7 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Penybont Analysis

Penybont come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 24 points after 10 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 20:8 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, GAP Connah S Quay FC won 8 times, Penybont won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:7 from GAP Connah S Quay FC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
H2H summary: GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 8, draws 5, Penybont wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 12 1 0 44:6 38 37
W W W W W
2 13 10 1 2 30:9 21 31
W W W W W
3 13 9 3 1 25:11 14 30
W L W W W
4 13 8 2 3 37:15 22 26
W L D W D
5 13 8 1 4 22:15 7 25
W L W W W
6 13 8 1 4 28:23 5 25
L W L L D
7 13 6 3 4 24:16 8 21
L W W D L
8 13 7 0 6 25:18 7 21
W W L W L
9 13 5 3 5 21:33 -12 18
L L W L W
10 13 5 1 7 22:23 -1 16
L L L L D
11 13 3 3 7 12:22 -10 12
L W D D L
12 13 3 1 9 8:19 -11 10
L L L L W
13 13 2 3 8 10:32 -22 9
W W L L D
14 13 2 2 9 12:25 -13 8
L W W L L
15 13 1 3 9 8:31 -23 6
W L L D L
16 13 0 2 11 14:44 -30 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)