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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
24.10.2026 13:30
Mewa Arena

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FSV Mainz 05 Win 45.8%
Draw 24.4%
Werder Bremen Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 052.95
Werder Bremen1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WWDLW
55 GF / 15 GA
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
WLDWL
28 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
3.67
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
6
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
9
6
Shots on Goal
6.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 15 matches
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 14 matches
FSV Mainz 05 Statistic Werder Bremen
11 Wins 6
2 Draws 5
2 Losses 3
55 Goals For 28
15 Goals Against 26
3.67 Avg Goals Scored 2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
6 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
6 Shots On Goal 6.83
17.67 Total Shots 14
4.83 Corners 3.67
50.8% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with FSV Mainz 05's more proactive style and Werder Bremen's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FSV Mainz 05 expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Werder Bremen in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Werder Bremen having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Werder Bremen.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 are currently 9 in the standings with 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Tietz (4 goals), S. Becker (2 goals), A. Caci (2 goals), with creative support from S. Becker (3 assists), K. Sano (2 assists), A. Caci (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Werder Bremen Analysis

Werder Bremen are currently 7 in the standings with 8 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 10:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on N. Füllkrug (4 goals), M. Grüll (2 goals), L. Reis (1 goals), with creative support from M. Grüll (4 assists), Chuky San José (2 assists), O. Wójcik (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 6 times, Werder Bremen won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.6%)
Predicted formations: FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 / Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FSV Mainz 05 wins 6, draws 2, Werder Bremen wins 7

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 22:5 17 14
W D W W D
2 6 4 2 0 11:4 7 14
D D W W W
3 6 4 1 1 15:6 9 13
L W D W W
4 6 4 1 1 16:9 7 13
W W W D W
5 6 3 1 2 14:10 4 10
W L W L W
6 6 3 1 2 12:11 1 10
W L D L W
7 6 3 0 3 16:11 5 9
L W L W L
8 6 2 3 1 12:12 0 9
D D W D W
9 6 3 0 3 6:15 -9 9
W W W L L
10 6 2 2 2 16:12 4 8
L D L D W
11 6 2 2 2 10:16 -6 8
W L D W L
12 6 2 1 3 8:11 -3 7
L W L D L
13 6 2 0 4 8:10 -2 6
L W L L W
14 6 2 0 4 11:14 -3 6
W L L W L
15 6 1 2 3 4:7 -3 5
L L D W D
16 6 1 2 3 5:9 -4 5
D L W L L
17 6 1 2 3 5:17 -12 5
D W L L L
18 6 0 0 6 8:20 -12 0
L L L L L
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