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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
19.09.2026 13:00
Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs
Referee: J. Keziks
FS Jelgava
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
M. Tonisevs
Riga
⚽
29'
Iago Siqueira · Assist: R. Aouani
Riga
🟨
32'
B. Musah
Riga
🟨
47'
K. Alekseiciks
FS Jelgava
🟨
63'
Iago Siqueira
Riga
🔄
67'
R. Aouani ↔ Caio Ferreira
Riga
🟨
68'
G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
🟨
71'
J. Novikovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
73'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Becers
FS Jelgava
🔄
73'
T. Rataj ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🟥
79'
J. Novikovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
82'
F. Hasek ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
83'
M. Hasek ↔ A. Petersons
FS Jelgava
🔄
83'
M. Pudil ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
🔄
83'
S. Oulad M'Hand ↔ S. L. Robalo Pedro
Riga
🔄
90+1'
M. Badamosi ↔ A. Taiwo
Riga

FS Jelgava vs Riga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 18.7%
Draw 5.8%
Riga Win 75.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.08
Riga2.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
37 GF / 56 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
114 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
2.53
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
15
BTTS Yes
29
14
Over 2.5
34
0
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 35 matches
Riga Riga 45 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic Riga
9 Wins 30
8 Draws 10
18 Losses 5
37 Goals For 114
56 Goals Against 50
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 2.53
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
15 BTTS Yes 29
24 Over 1.5 40
14 Over 2.5 34
10 Over 3.5 24
5 Clean Sheets 15
17 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 4.25
0 Total Shots 9
0 Corners 5.88
0% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Riga's more proactive style and FS Jelgava's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FS Jelgava expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Riga in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Riga. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. FS Jelgava have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 67 points while FS Jelgava sit 7 on 31, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 31 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 32:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Placed 2 with 67 points from 29 outings, Riga continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 20 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 84:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 1 times, Riga won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:48 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 3-4-2-1 / Riga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 1, draws 2, Riga wins 12

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 5 2 75:24 51 77
W D W D W
2
Riga Away
32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 32 12 7 13 43:46 -3 43
L D D D W
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 31 11 5 15 31:41 -10 38
W L L W W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L