COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50%
Odds 1.77
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50%
1.77
BTTS Yes
71%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza FC Win 36%
Draw 14%
Atletico Nacional Win 50%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza FC1.07
Atletico Nacional1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WWDLW
26 GF / 31 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
54 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
16
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
20
3.91
Shots on Goal
6.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 23 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 30 matches
Fortaleza FC Statistic Atletico Nacional
6 Wins 19
9 Draws 1
8 Losses 10
26 Goals For 54
31 Goals Against 29
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
16 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 22
10 Over 2.5 20
4 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 9
3.91 Shots On Goal 6.04
12.04 Total Shots 16.3
4.3 Corners 5.19
54.7% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Nacional. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza FC expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Atletico Nacional in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Nacional having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Fortaleza FC sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Richardson Rivas (2 goals), Joan Cajares (1 goals), J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from Yesid Díaz (1 assists), Santiago Vivas (1 assists), Andres Copete (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 19 outings. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Alfredo Morelos (1 goals), Marlos Moreno (1 goals), Andrés Sarmiento (1 goals), with creative support from Alfredo Morelos (1 assists), Matheus Uribe (1 assists), Andrés Román (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza FC won 1 times, Atletico Nacional won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:18 from Fortaleza FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza FC wins 1, draws 1, Atletico Nacional wins 5
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
08.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
2
0
W
04.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
31.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
2
D
25.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
1
2
L
19.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Jaguares
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Once Caldas
2
4
L
16.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Chico
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Nacional
10.08.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
America de Cali
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
3
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
0
W
03.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
0
3
L
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
12.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
7
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
01.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Bucaramanga
2
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
3
2
W
07.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
2
1
W
02.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Cucuta
0
0
D
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
26.03.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Cruz Azul
0
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
3
0
W
18.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Millonarios
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Llaneros
2
0
W
H2H: Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional
13.02.26
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Fortaleza FC
4
1
L
17.08.25
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Fortaleza FC
2
2
D
05.03.25
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
5
L
27.10.24
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
05.04.24
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Fortaleza FC
1
2
W
24.07.16
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
07.04.16
H2H
Atletico Nacional
Fortaleza FC
4
1
L
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
08.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
2
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
23.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
25.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
1
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Jaguares
2
1
W
16.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Chico
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
0
W
03.12.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
1
2
L
30.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
0
2
L
18.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
1
D
24.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
14.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Chico
1
0
W
27.09.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
1
0
W
H2H at home: Fortaleza FC
05.03.25
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
5
L
27.10.24
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
24.07.16
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico Nacional
10.08.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
America de Cali
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Jaguares
3
0
W
03.06.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
01.05.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
3
2
W
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
26.03.26
Fri
Atletico Nacional
Cruz Azul
0
3
L
18.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Millonarios
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
4
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Águilas Doradas
2
1
W
02.03.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Santa Fe
2
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Cali
0
1
L
08.12.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
America de Cali
2
3
L
30.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
2
L
23.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
14.11.25
Pri
Atletico Nacional
Junior
1
2
L
H2H away: Atletico Nacional
05.03.25
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
5
W
27.10.24
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
W
24.07.16
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.77
Draw 3.42
Home 4.81
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.32
Over 3.5 3.51
Under 1.5 3.21
Under 1.75 2.84
Under 2.0 2.46
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.59
Under 3.5 1.28
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.83
Draw 3.40
Home 4.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.10
Home 4.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 2.38
Home 4.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.78
Draw 3.42
Home 4.58
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.03
Home 5.29
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 2.42
Home 4.64
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.78
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.32
Over 3.0 2.77
Over 3.25 3.11
Over 3.5 3.42
Over 3.75 4.30
Over 4.0 6.10
Over 4.25 6.49
Over 4.5 6.90
Over 5.5 13.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.70
Under 0.75 8.00
Under 1.0 7.30
Under 1.25 4.19
Under 1.5 3.08
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.36
Under 2.25 1.98
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.74
Draw 3.60
Home 4.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 2.17
Home 4.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 2.48
Home 4.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.23
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.35
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.60
Over 4.25 5.80
Over 4.5 6.10
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W W W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L W W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D L L D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D L W L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W W W D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W D L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D D D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L D L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L W L
Post season qualification