BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Gomes Stefano
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
America Mineiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
M. Segovia · Assist: Gabriel Barros
America Mineiro
44'
Gabriel Barros · Assist: M. Segovia
America Mineiro
🔄
46'
Rodrigo ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Kaua Rocha ↔ Lucas Emanoel
Fortaleza EC
🔄
59'
Lucas Crispim ↔ T. Pochettino
Fortaleza EC
🔄
59'
Mailton ↔ Mauricio Junior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
62'
Eduardo Person ↔ Ale
America Mineiro
🔄
62'
Everton Brito ↔ Paulo Victor
America Mineiro
🔄
66'
Gabriel Barros ↔ Yago Souza
America Mineiro
🟨
75'
Gustavo
America Mineiro
🔄
79'
Vitinho ↔ Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
84'
Gonzalo Mastriani ↔ Willian Bigode
America Mineiro
🔄
84'
Jorge Jimenez ↔ Emerson Santos
America Mineiro
🟨
87'
Manoel
America Mineiro
🟨
90+3'
Lucas Emanoel
Fortaleza EC
🟨
90+4'
Thiago Carpini
Fortaleza EC
90'
Willian Bigode
America Mineiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 88%
Draw 4.6%
America Mineiro Win 7.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.55
America Mineiro0.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
15 GF / 11 GA
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WLDWL
7 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
0.58
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
2
4
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
8
3.58
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 12 matches
America Mineiro America Mineiro 12 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic America Mineiro
6 Wins 0
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 9
15 Goals For 7
11 Goals Against 24
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 0.58
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 2
4 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 5
3.58 Shots On Goal 4.67
12.17 Total Shots 13.5
4.25 Corners 6.5
41.6% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fortaleza EC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 18 points compared to America Mineiro in 20 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring America Mineiro. America Mineiro arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and America Mineiro in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward America Mineiro having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Fortaleza EC have collected 18 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 14:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 3 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats with a 7:24 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), Emerson Santos (1 goals), F. Elizari (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Felipe Amaral (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 7 times, America Mineiro won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:14 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1 / America Mineiro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 7, draws 0, America Mineiro wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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