05.09.2026 23:00
Tim Hortons Field
Forge
Match Timeline
York United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke · Assist: Oswaldo Leon
York United
🟨
25'
Jorge Ariel Almagro Albán
York United
🟨
38'
Rezart Rama
Forge
🔄
45'
Noah Jensen ↔ Ben Paton
Forge
🔄
59'
Jorge Ariel Almagro Albán ↔ Kembo·Kibato
York United
🟨
64'
Nana Ampomah
Forge
🔄
65'
Tomasz Noah Skublak ↔ Luca accettola
York United
70'
Hoce Massunda · Assist: Rezart Rama
Forge
🔄
71'
Kyle Bekker ↔ M. Bourgeois
Forge
🔄
71'
Hoce Massunda ↔ Brian Wright
Forge
🔄
74'
Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke ↔ Chimaobim Onyeocha
York United
🟨
75'
Chimaobim Onyeocha
York United
VAR
79'
Luca accettola
York United
🔄
84'
Aghilas Abdelmalek Sadek Sadek ↔ Tristan Borges
Forge
🔄
88'
Nana Ampomah ↔ Maxime Filion
Forge
🟨
90'
Tristan Borges
Forge

Forge vs York United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.5%
Odds 1.23
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.5%
1.23
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.47
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
2.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.73
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Forge Win 87.5%
Draw 5%
York United Win 7.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Forge1.68
York United1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Forge Forge
WWDLW
30 GF / 18 GA
York United York United
WLDWL
23 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.28
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
2.06
9
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
10
2.33
Shots on Goal
1.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Forge Forge 21 matches
York United York United 18 matches
Forge Statistic York United
13 Wins 5
3 Draws 6
5 Losses 7
30 Goals For 23
18 Goals Against 37
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 2.06
9 BTTS Yes 13
11 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
2.33 Shots On Goal 1.53
6.86 Total Shots 3.65
2.71 Corners 0.82
21.2% Ball Possession 15.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Forge's more proactive style and York United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward York United. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Forge arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 41 points compared to York United in 7 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Forge expected to line up in 4-3-3 and York United in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward York United having the stronger overall control. Forge have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Forge Analysis

Forge approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 1 with 41 points from 19 matches. Their record of 13 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 29:14, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

York United Analysis

York United sit 7 with 18 points after 17 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 22:37 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Forge won 10 times, York United won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 36:13 from Forge's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Forge 4-3-3 / York United 3-4-3
H2H summary: Forge wins 10, draws 4, York United wins 1

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2
Forge Home
22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 23 10 4 9 34:39 -5 34
L L D W L
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 23 7 5 11 35:38 -3 26
W W L L W
6 22 7 4 11 31:38 -7 25
W L L W D
7 21 5 8 8 30:46 -16 23
L W D D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W