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03.10.2026 20:00
Tim Hortons Field
Forge
Match Timeline
HFX Wanderers FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
L. Cavallini · Assist: A. Batisse
Forge
VAR
54'
Maxime Bourgeois
Forge
🔄
56'
A. Reid ↔ L. MacKenzie
HFX Wanderers FC
🟨
60'
Daniel Nimick
Forge
VAR
68'
Maxime Bourgeois
Forge
🔄
69'
T. Borges ↔ N. Jensen
Forge
🔄
69'
J. Bahamboula ↔ N. Pierre
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
78'
A. Sadek ↔ L. Johnson
Forge
🔄
78'
L. Cavallini ↔ I. Oketokoun
Forge
⚽
78'
D. Nimick · Assist: N. Jensen
Forge
⚽
81'
N. Pierre · Assist: L. Callegari
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
85'
M. Arilla ↔ F. Troisi
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
85'
F. Linder ↔ Y. Bai
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
85'
S. Zitman ↔ T. Ciccarelli
HFX Wanderers FC
🟨
90+16'
Manjrekar James
Forge
VAR
90+11'
Tavio Ciccarelli
HFX Wanderers FC
🔄
90+1'
M. Bourgeois ↔ D. Krutzen
Forge
⚽
90'
I. Oketokoun · Assist: N. Jensen
Forge
⚽
90'
L. MacKenzie
HFX Wanderers FC
⚽
90'
T. Ciccarelli · Assist: T. Meilleur-Gigeuere
HFX Wanderers FC

Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
90.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Forge Win 66.1%
Draw 8.2%
HFX Wanderers FC Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Forge1.49
HFX Wanderers FC1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Forge Forge
WWDLW
36 GF / 21 GA
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC
WLDWL
35 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
12
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
13
3.28
Shots on Goal
3.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Forge Forge 25 matches
HFX Wanderers FC HFX Wanderers FC 25 matches
Forge Statistic HFX Wanderers FC
14 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
5 Losses 12
36 Goals For 35
21 Goals Against 39
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
12 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
3.28 Shots On Goal 3.08
10.12 Total Shots 8.79
3.84 Corners 3.67
31.8% Ball Possession 40.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Forge's more proactive style and HFX Wanderers FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Forge arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 46 points compared to HFX Wanderers FC in 5 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward HFX Wanderers FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Forge Analysis

Placed 2 with 46 points from 22 outings, Forge continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 14 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 34:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Bourgeois (2 goals), H. Massunda (1 goals), K. Bekker (1 goals), with creative support from I. Oketokoun (2 assists), H. Massunda (1 assists), R. Rama (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

HFX Wanderers FC Analysis

HFX Wanderers FC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 26 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a 35:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on I. Johnston (4 goals), J. Bahamboula (2 goals), L. Callegari (1 goals), with creative support from L. Callegari (2 assists), R. Telfer (1 assists), I. A. Hassan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Forge won 9 times, HFX Wanderers FC won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:12 from Forge's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Forge 4-3-3 / HFX Wanderers FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Forge wins 9, draws 4, HFX Wanderers FC wins 2

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 57:23 34 57
W D L L W
2
Forge Home
27 17 6 4 48:21 27 57
W W W D D
3 27 13 4 10 41:43 -2 43
L W W W L
4 27 10 7 10 39:36 3 37
W D D D D
5 27 10 5 12 43:47 -4 35
W D W W L
6 27 7 7 13 41:46 -5 28
L D D L W
7 27 6 9 12 40:64 -24 27
L L L W L
8 27 2 8 17 32:61 -29 14
L L L L W