20.08.2026 00:30
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: G. Tejera
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
G. de Arrascaeta · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
51'
L. Romero · Assist: Gerson
Cruzeiro
62'
Samuel Lino · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
63'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🔄
64'
G. Plata ↔ J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
66'
Wesley ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🟨
70'
William Furtado
Cruzeiro
🔄
76'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ G. Varela
Flamengo
🔄
76'
Pedro ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
79'
William Furtado ↔ Fagner
Cruzeiro
🔄
80'
Jorginho ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
80'
G. Rojas ↔ L. Rodriguez
Cruzeiro
🔄
85'
Gerson ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+3'
Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🟨
90+4'
João Costa
Cruzeiro

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 59%
Draw 4.4%
Cruzeiro Win 36.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.72
Cruzeiro1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
66 GF / 27 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
44 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
17
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
5.86
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 32 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 32 matches
Flamengo Statistic Cruzeiro
20 Wins 14
9 Draws 9
3 Losses 9
66 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 39
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
17 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
13 Clean Sheets 10
2 Failed To Score 5
5.86 Shots On Goal 4.47
15.54 Total Shots 13.77
4.57 Corners 4.87
56.7% Ball Possession 54.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Flamengo had more of the ball in the first leg (53% possession compared to 47%). Flamengo were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 1. Flamengo also attempted more passes (507 to 434) and completed 437. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cruzeiro. Flamengo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Cruzeiro in 2 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Flamengo Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Flamengo arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 16 points after 6 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 14:2 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on Bruno Henrique (4 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Cruzeiro arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 11 points after 6 matches. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 8:3, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Matheus Pereira (4 goals), Fagner (1 goals), Christian (1 goals), with creative support from Fagner (2 assists), Kaio Jorge (2 assists), Matheus Pereira (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 10 times, Cruzeiro won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:10 from Flamengo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 10, draws 3, Cruzeiro wins 2

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:2 12 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
W L D D W
3 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W W L D
4 6 0 1 5 4:12 -8 1
L L D L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals