WORLD CONMEBOL LIBERTADORES
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: G. Tejera
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
G. de Arrascaeta · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
VAR
48'
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
51'
L. Romero · Assist: Gerson
Cruzeiro
62'
Samuel Lino · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
63'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🔄
64'
G. Plata ↔ J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
66'
Wesley ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🟨
70'
William Furtado
Cruzeiro
🔄
76'
Pedro ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
76'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ G. Varela
Flamengo
🔄
79'
William Furtado ↔ Fagner
Cruzeiro
🔄
80'
G. Rojas ↔ L. Rodriguez
Cruzeiro
🔄
80'
Jorginho ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Gerson ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+3'
Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🟨
90+4'
J. Costa
Cruzeiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.94
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59%
1.67
BTTS Yes
63.2%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.94
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 59%
Draw 4.4%
Cruzeiro Win 36.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.72
Cruzeiro1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
66 GF / 27 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
44 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
17
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
5.86
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 32 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 32 matches
Flamengo Statistic Cruzeiro
20 Wins 14
9 Draws 9
3 Losses 9
66 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 39
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
17 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
13 Clean Sheets 10
2 Failed To Score 5
5.86 Shots On Goal 4.47
15.54 Total Shots 13.77
4.57 Corners 4.87
56.7% Ball Possession 54.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Flamengo had more of the ball in the first leg (53% possession compared to 47%). Flamengo were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 1. Flamengo also attempted more passes (507 to 434) and completed 437. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cruzeiro. Flamengo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Cruzeiro in 2 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Flamengo Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Flamengo arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 16 points after 6 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 14:2 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on Bruno Henrique (4 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Cruzeiro arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 11 points after 6 matches. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 8:3, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Matheus Pereira (4 goals), Fagner (1 goals), Christian (1 goals), with creative support from Fagner (2 assists), Kaio Jorge (2 assists), Matheus Pereira (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 9 times, Cruzeiro won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:8 from Flamengo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 9, draws 5, Cruzeiro wins 1
Stats
Flamengo Flamengo
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
5
3 Corner Kicks 6
9 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
24 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Goal 3
11 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 5
14 Shots insidebox 5
10 Shots outsidebox 9
2 Goalkeeper Saves 7
463 Total passes 422
386 Passes accurate 346
2.23 expected_goals 0.48
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Flamengo
Formation
Cruzeiro
Agustín Rossi
Agustín Rossi
Emerson Royal
Emerson Royal
Léo Ortiz
Léo Ortiz
Léo Pereira
Léo Pereira
Ayrton Lucas
Ayrton Lucas
Erick Pulgar
Erick Pulgar
Jorginho
Jorginho
Gonzalo Plata
Gonzalo Plata
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino
Pedro Guilherme
🎯
Pedro Guilherme
Otávio Costa
Otávio Costa
William Furtado
William Furtado
Fabrício Bruno
Fabrício Bruno
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Gabriel Rojas
Gabriel Rojas
Lucas Romero
Lucas Romero
Gerson
🎯
Gerson
Keny Arroyo
Keny Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Wesley
Wesley
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Agustín Rossi
G
22
Emerson Royal
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
6
Ayrton Lucas
↓ 76'
D
5
Erick Pulgar
M
21
Jorginho
↓ 80'
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
↓ 64'
M
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
⚽ 35' ↓ 63'
M
16
Samuel Lino
⚽ 62'
M
9
Pedro Guilherme
🎯 35' 🎯 62' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
20
Lucas Paquetá
↑ 63'
M
15
Jorge Carrascal
↑ 64'
M
2
Guillermo Varela
↑ 76'
D
27
Bruno Henrique
↑ 76' 🟨 90+3'
F
52
Evertton Araujo
↑ 80'
M
42
Andrew
G
77
Johnny Goes
D
13
Danilo
D
7
Luiz Araújo
F
99
Lorran
M
8
Saúl Ñíguez
M
64
Wallace Yan
F
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otávio Costa
G
12
William Furtado
↓ 79' 🟨 70'
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
27
Gabriel Rojas
↓ 80'
D
29
Lucas Romero
⚽ 51'
M
8
Gerson
🎯 51' ↓ 85'
M
99
Keny Arroyo
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
20
Wesley
↓ 66'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Substitutes
67
João Costa
↑ 66' 🟨 90+4'
F
23
Fagner
↑ 79'
D
97
Luciano Rodríguez
↑ 80'
F
9
Bruno Rodrigues
↑ 85'
F
1
Cássio
G
43
João Marcelo
D
25
Lucas Villalba
D
5
Zé Lucas
M
38
Felipe Morais
M
94
Wanderson
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
70
Kaique Kenji
F
Last matches: Flamengo
16.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Mirassol
5
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
29.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
11.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Benfica
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
H2H: Flamengo vs Cruzeiro
13.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
12.03.26
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
02.10.25
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
L
07.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
1
W
30.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
19.10.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
W
27.05.23
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
21.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
W
28.04.19
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
25.11.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
W
12.08.18
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
08.11.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
28.09.17
H2H
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
0
D
08.09.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
Last matches: Flamengo
09.08.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Olimpia
4
2
W
08.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
Lausanne
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
H2H at home: Flamengo
12.03.26
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
02.10.25
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
30.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
27.05.23
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.04.19
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
12.08.18
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
08.11.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
08.09.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
Last matches: Cruzeiro
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
2
D
30.01.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
4
L
H2H away: Cruzeiro
12.03.26
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
02.10.25
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
30.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
1
L
27.05.23
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.04.19
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
3
1
L
12.08.18
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
08.11.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
08.09.17
H2H
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.67
Draw 3.82
Away 5.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.29
Draw 2.33
Away 5.52
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Under 1.5 3.63
Over 1.75 1.42
Under 1.75 2.96
Over 2.0 1.46
Under 2.0 2.80
Over 2.25 1.69
Under 2.25 2.21
Over 2.5 1.94
Under 2.5 1.93
Over 2.75 2.18
Under 2.75 1.71
Over 3.5 3.31
Under 3.5 1.34
Over 3.0 2.64
Under 3.0 1.51
Over 4.5 6.64
Under 4.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.62
Draw 3.75
Away 5.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.20
Draw 2.25
Away 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 1.95
Draw 2.50
Away 5.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Under 1.5 3.50
Over 2.5 1.95
Under 2.5 1.85
Over 3.5 3.40
Under 3.5 1.30
Over 0.5 1.05
Under 0.5 11.00
Over 4.5 7.00
Under 4.5 1.10
Over 5.5 15.00
Under 5.5 1.03
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.69
Draw 3.68
Away 5.61
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.22
Draw 2.07
Away 5.85
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 1.95
Draw 2.54
Away 5.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Under 1.5 3.12
Over 1.75 1.36
Under 1.75 2.82
Over 2.0 1.46
Under 2.0 2.46
Over 2.25 1.77
Under 2.25 2.10
Over 2.5 1.99
Under 2.5 1.86
Over 2.75 2.27
Under 2.75 1.66
Over 3.5 3.18
Under 3.5 1.27
Over 0.5 1.02
Under 0.5 7.80
Over 0.75 1.03
Under 0.75 7.30
Over 1.0 1.04
Under 1.0 6.75
Over 1.25 1.16
Under 1.25 4.16
Over 3.0 2.59
Under 3.0 1.42
Over 4.5 5.90
Under 4.5 1.07
Over 3.25 2.89
Under 3.25 1.32
Over 3.75 3.86
Under 3.75 1.18
Over 4.0 5.20
Under 4.0 1.10
Over 4.25 5.55
Under 4.25 1.08
Over 5.0 10.00
Under 5.0 1.01
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 5.5 1.03
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.63
Draw 3.60
Away 5.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.14
Draw 2.12
Away 5.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 1.98
Draw 2.60
Away 4.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Under 1.5 3.40
Over 1.75 1.38
Under 1.75 3.00
Over 2.0 1.50
Under 2.0 2.55
Over 2.25 1.75
Under 2.25 2.06
Over 2.5 2.00
Under 2.5 1.80
Over 2.75 2.30
Under 2.75 1.61
Over 3.5 3.55
Under 3.5 1.28
Over 0.5 1.04
Under 0.5 9.50
Over 3.0 2.85
Under 3.0 1.42
Over 4.5 7.50
Under 4.5 1.08
Over 3.25 3.20
Under 3.25 1.34
Over 5.5 14.00
Under 5.5 1.01