LATVIA VIRSLIGA
31.08.2026 14:30
Daugavas stadions
Referee: K. Ratnieks
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
E. Oloko · Assist: A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🟨
6'
Talisca
FK Liepaja
17'
M. Badamosi · Assist: A. Cernomordijs
Riga
27'
E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🔄
56'
S. L. Robalo Pedro ↔ M. Diop
Riga
🔄
57'
C. Saco ↔ Iago Siqueira
Riga
58'
A. Ogunniyi · Assist: E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🔄
62'
Caio Ferreira ↔ A. Taiwo
Riga
🟨
63'
M. Badamosi
Riga
🔄
65'
Crysthyan ↔ B. Melnis
FK Liepaja
🔄
78'
A. Ogunniyi ↔ K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🟨
78'
L. Strumia
FK Liepaja
🟨
78'
A. Taiwo
Riga
🔄
81'
M. Tonisevs ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
90'
E. Oloko ↔ A. Leite
FK Liepaja
🔄
90+1'
A. Haidara ↔ M. Martins
FK Liepaja
90+4'
A. Taiwo
Riga
🟨
90+5'
K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja vs Riga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.2%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.2%
1.12
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.50
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.27
HT / FT Home / Home
-
12.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
21.00
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 42.9%
Draw 7.8%
Riga Win 49.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.3
Riga2.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
57 GF / 60 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
108 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
2.63
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
23
BTTS Yes
26
24
Over 2.5
32
0.86
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 39 matches
Riga Riga 41 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Riga
17 Wins 29
5 Draws 8
17 Losses 4
57 Goals For 108
60 Goals Against 44
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 2.63
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
23 BTTS Yes 26
32 Over 1.5 37
24 Over 2.5 32
13 Over 3.5 22
5 Clean Sheets 14
11 Failed To Score 3
0.86 Shots On Goal 3
3.43 Total Shots 5.6
1.29 Corners 3.5
11.7% Ball Possession 27.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Riga's more proactive style and FK Liepaja's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FK Liepaja expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Riga in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Riga look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 65 points while FK Liepaja sit 5 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Riga. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 37 points after 26 matches. They have recorded 11 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a 36:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Riga Analysis

Riga come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 65 points after 26 matches. They have recorded 20 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, with a 79:24 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 1 times, Riga won 13 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:40 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / Riga 4-3-3
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 1, draws 1, Riga wins 13

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 22 4 2 68:20 48 70
D W D W W
2
Riga Away
29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 29 10 8 11 34:33 1 38
D L D W W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L