JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
19.09.2026 10:00
Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Tokyo Win 86%
Draw 7%
Nagoya Grampus Win 7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Tokyo1.86
Nagoya Grampus1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WWDLW
13 GF / 8 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
7 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
3
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
5
5.14
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 7 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 7 matches
FC Tokyo Statistic Nagoya Grampus
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 5
13 Goals For 7
8 Goals Against 13
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
3 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 3
5.14 Shots On Goal 3.86
16 Total Shots 13.57
5.29 Corners 5.43
52.9% Ball Possession 60.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by FC Tokyo's more proactive style and Nagoya Grampus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nagoya Grampus. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Tokyo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Nagoya Grampus in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nagoya Grampus having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nagoya Grampus arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Tokyo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 11 points compared to Nagoya Grampus in 14 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

FC Tokyo Analysis

From their first 6 matches, FC Tokyo have collected 11 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 11:8 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Nagakura (3 goals), Marcelo Ryan (2 goals), S. Anzai (1 goals), with creative support from K. Sato (2 assists), M. Nagakura (1 assists), S. Muroya (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

With 6 points from 6 games and a place of 14, Nagoya Grampus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats with a 7:11 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Asano (1 goals), Y. Kimura (1 goals), M. Ono (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Asano (1 assists), R. Izumi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Tokyo won 6 times, Nagoya Grampus won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:15 from FC Tokyo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93%)
Predicted formations: FC Tokyo 4-4-2 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: FC Tokyo wins 6, draws 5, Nagoya Grampus wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 19:6 13 17
D W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 2 1 19:6 13 14
W L W D D
5 7 4 2 1 13:8 5 14
W W D W W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L D
7 7 3 3 1 13:9 4 12
W W L W D
8 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
9 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
D W D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:11 -5 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
L D W D W
12 7 3 0 4 13:17 -4 9
L W W W L
13 7 2 1 4 4:7 -3 7
W L D L L
14 7 2 1 4 9:14 -5 7
W L D L L
15 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L L D D L
16 7 2 0 5 7:13 -6 6
L L L W W
17 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
18 7 1 1 5 9:11 -2 4
L D L L L
19 7 0 4 3 3:9 -6 4
D D L L D
20 7 1 1 5 6:16 -10 4
D W L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League