PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
02.05.2026 19:30
Estádio Do Dragão
Referee: D. Silva
FC Porto
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Jakub Kiwior
FC Porto
🟨
38'
Chiquinho
Alverca
40'
J. Bednarek · Assist: G. Veiga
FC Porto
🔄
46'
Zaidu ↔ M. Fernandes
FC Porto
🔄
46'
J. Kiwior ↔ A. Varela
FC Porto
🟨
52'
Kaiky Naves
Alverca
🔄
63'
O. Pietuszewski ↔ B. Sainz
FC Porto
🟨
74'
Sandro Lima
Alverca
🔄
74'
G. Veiga ↔ S. Fofana
FC Porto
🟨
77'
Figueiredo
Alverca
🔄
77'
Chiquinho ↔ Marezi
Alverca
🔄
77'
Figueiredo ↔ D. Gui
Alverca
🔄
86'
Pepê ↔ R. Mora
FC Porto
🔄
89'
Rhaldney ↔ Z. Kassary
Alverca
🔄
90'
Naves ↔ D. Spencer
Alverca
🔄
90'
Sandro Lima ↔ C. Nuozzi
Alverca

FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Porto Win 76.3%
Draw 0%
Alverca Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto1.76
Alverca0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Porto FC Porto
WWDLW
81 GF / 25 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
34 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
19
BTTS Yes
18
23
Over 2.5
17
5.26
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Porto FC Porto 43 matches
Alverca Alverca 31 matches
FC Porto Statistic Alverca
33 Wins 10
7 Draws 8
3 Losses 13
81 Goals For 34
25 Goals Against 49
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
19 BTTS Yes 18
33 Over 1.5 25
23 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
22 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 8
5.26 Shots On Goal 3.65
14.3 Total Shots 9.77
5.42 Corners 4.39
53.9% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Porto's more proactive style and Alverca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. FC Porto come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. FC Porto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 82 points compared to Alverca in 9 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Porto expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Alverca.

FC Porto Analysis

FC Porto approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 82 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 26 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, with a 63:15 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Samu (13 goals), William Gomes (8 goals), V. Froholdt (6 goals), with creative support from A. Costa (8 assists), G. Veiga (7 assists), V. Froholdt (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Alverca Analysis

So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 38 points from 31 matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 34:49 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marezi (9 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (4 assists), Nabil Touaizi (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 3 times, Alverca won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:0 from FC Porto's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Porto 4-3-3 / Alverca 3-4-3
H2H summary: FC Porto wins 3, draws 0, Alverca wins 0

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2