PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Do Dragão
Referee: D. Silva
FC Porto
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Jakub Kiwior
FC Porto
🟨
38'
Chiquinho
Alverca
40'
J. Bednarek · Assist: G. Veiga
FC Porto
🔄
46'
Zaidu ↔ M. Fernandes
FC Porto
🔄
46'
J. Kiwior ↔ A. Varela
FC Porto
🟨
52'
Kaiky Naves
Alverca
🔄
63'
O. Pietuszewski ↔ B. Sainz
FC Porto
🟨
74'
Sandro Lima
Alverca
🔄
74'
G. Veiga ↔ S. Fofana
FC Porto
🟨
77'
Figueiredo
Alverca
🔄
77'
Chiquinho ↔ Marezi
Alverca
🔄
77'
Figueiredo ↔ D. Gui
Alverca
🔄
86'
Pepê ↔ R. Mora
FC Porto
🔄
89'
Rhaldney ↔ Z. Kassary
Alverca
🔄
90'
Naves ↔ D. Spencer
Alverca
🔄
90'
Sandro Lima ↔ C. Nuozzi
Alverca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Porto Win 76.3%
Draw 0%
Alverca Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto1.76
Alverca0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Porto FC Porto
WWDLW
81 GF / 25 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
34 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
19
BTTS Yes
18
23
Over 2.5
17
5.26
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Porto FC Porto 43 matches
Alverca Alverca 31 matches
FC Porto Statistic Alverca
33 Wins 10
7 Draws 8
3 Losses 13
81 Goals For 34
25 Goals Against 49
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
19 BTTS Yes 18
33 Over 1.5 25
23 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
22 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 8
5.26 Shots On Goal 3.65
14.3 Total Shots 9.77
5.42 Corners 4.39
53.9% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Porto's more proactive style and Alverca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. FC Porto come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. FC Porto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 82 points compared to Alverca in 9 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Porto expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Alverca.

FC Porto Analysis

FC Porto approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 82 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 26 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, with a 63:15 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Samu (13 goals), William Gomes (8 goals), V. Froholdt (6 goals), with creative support from A. Costa (8 assists), G. Veiga (7 assists), V. Froholdt (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Alverca Analysis

So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 38 points from 31 matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 34:49 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marezi (9 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (4 assists), Nabil Touaizi (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 2 times, Alverca won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from FC Porto's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Porto 4-3-3 / Alverca 3-4-3
H2H summary: FC Porto wins 2, draws 0, Alverca wins 0
Stats
FC Porto FC Porto
Alverca Alverca
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 4
21 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 0
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 5
2 Shots off Goal 4
7 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 5
3 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
437 Total passes 339
382 Passes accurate 270
0.62 expected_goals 0.79
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Porto
Formation
Alverca
D. Costa
D. Costa
A. Costa
A. Costa
J. Bednarek
J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
J. Kiwior
Zaidu
Zaidu
V. Froholdt
V. Froholdt
P. Rosario
P. Rosario
G. Veiga
🎯
G. Veiga
Pepê
Pepê
D. Gul
D. Gul
O. Pietuszewski
O. Pietuszewski
Matheus Mendes
Matheus Mendes
Naves
Naves
S. Gomez
S. Gomez
B. Meupiyou
B. Meupiyou
N. Touaizi
N. Touaizi
Rhaldney
Rhaldney
Lincoln
Lincoln
I. James
I. James
Chiquinho
Chiquinho
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima
Figueiredo
Figueiredo
FC Porto 4-3-3
Starting XI
99
D. Costa
G
20
A. Costa
D
5
J. Bednarek
⚽ 40'
D
4
J. Kiwior
↓ 46' 🟨 38'
D
12
Zaidu
↓ 46'
D
8
V. Froholdt
M
13
P. Rosario
M
10
G. Veiga
🎯 40' ↓ 74'
M
11
Pepê
↓ 86'
F
27
D. Gul
F
77
O. Pietuszewski
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
14
Claudio Ramos
G
3
Thiago Silva
D
52
M. Fernandes
↑ 46'
D
42
S. Fofana
↑ 74'
M
29
T. Moffi
F
17
B. Sainz
↑ 63'
F
22
A. Varela
↑ 46'
M
86
R. Mora
↑ 86'
M
7
William Gomes
F
Alverca 3-4-3
Starting XI
31
Matheus Mendes
G
4
Naves
↓ 90' 🟨 52'
D
5
S. Gomez
D
33
B. Meupiyou
D
2
N. Touaizi
M
26
Rhaldney
↓ 89'
M
18
Lincoln
M
12
I. James
M
10
Chiquinho
↓ 77' 🟨 38'
F
91
Sandro Lima
↓ 90' 🟨 74'
F
20
Figueiredo
↓ 77' 🟨 77'
F
Substitutes
1
Mateus Oliveira
G
9
Marezi
↑ 77'
F
25
S. Diarra
F
82
D. Spencer
↑ 90'
D
11
C. Nuozzi
↑ 90'
F
14
S. Baseya
D
17
V. Moreira
M
6
D. Gui
↑ 77'
M
35
Z. Kassary
↑ 89'
M
Last matches: FC Porto
16.05.26
Pri
FC Porto
Santa Clara
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
FC Porto
AVS
1
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Estrela
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Tondela
2
0
W
16.04.26
UEF
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Estoril
3
1
W
09.04.26
UEF
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Famalicao
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
FC Porto
SC Braga
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
FC Porto
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
FC Porto
Moreirense
3
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
FC Porto
VfB Stuttgart
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pri
FC Porto
Benfica
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Arouca
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Rio Ave
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Nacional
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Sporting CP
1
1
D
02.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Casa Pia
1
2
L
29.01.26
UEF
FC Porto
Rangers
3
1
W
26.01.26
Pri
FC Porto
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
Last matches: Alverca
16.05.26
Pri
Alverca
Famalicao
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Alverca
Estoril
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Arouca
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Nacional
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Casa Pia
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Rio Ave
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Alverca
Sporting CP
1
4
L
14.03.26
Pri
Alverca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pri
Alverca
AVS
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Guimaraes
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Santa Clara
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Tondela
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Benfica
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
Alverca
Estrela
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Alverca
SC Braga
0
5
L
17.01.26
Pri
Alverca
Moreirense
2
1
W
04.01.26
Pri
Alverca
Famalicao
1
0
W
27.12.25
Pri
Alverca
Estoril
1
4
L
22.12.25
Pri
Alverca
FC Porto
0
3
L
14.12.25
Pri
Alverca
Arouca
0
1
L
H2H: FC Porto vs Alverca
02.05.26
H2H
FC Porto
Alverca
1
0
W
22.12.25
H2H
Alverca
FC Porto
0
3
W
Last matches: FC Porto
16.05.26
Pri
FC Porto
Santa Clara
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Tondela
2
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
FC Porto
Famalicao
2
2
D
19.03.26
UEF
FC Porto
VfB Stuttgart
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
FC Porto
Moreirense
3
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Arouca
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Rio Ave
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
FC Porto
Sporting CP
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
FC Porto
Rangers
3
1
W
26.01.26
Pri
FC Porto
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
29.12.25
Pri
FC Porto
AVS
2
0
W
15.12.25
Pri
FC Porto
Estrela
3
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
FC Porto
Malmo FF
2
1
W
30.11.25
Pri
FC Porto
Estoril
1
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
FC Porto
Nice
3
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
FC Porto
SC Braga
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
FC Porto
Benfica
0
0
D
02.10.25
UEF
FC Porto
FK Crvena Zvezda
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
FC Porto
Nacional
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Porto
02.05.26
H2H
FC Porto
Alverca
1
0
W
Last matches: Alverca
16.05.26
Pri
Alverca
Famalicao
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Nacional
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Rio Ave
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Alverca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Guimaraes
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Tondela
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Benfica
1
2
L
25.01.26
Pri
Alverca
SC Braga
0
5
L
27.12.25
Pri
Alverca
Estoril
1
4
L
14.12.25
Pri
Alverca
Arouca
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pri
Alverca
Casa Pia
2
0
W
31.10.25
Pri
Alverca
Sporting CP
0
2
L
04.10.25
Pri
Alverca
AVS
3
1
W
20.09.25
Pri
Alverca
Santa Clara
1
2
L
25.08.25
Pri
Alverca
Estrela
2
2
D
10.08.25
Pri
Alverca
Moreirense
1
2
L
H2H away: Alverca
02.05.26
H2H
FC Porto
Alverca
1
0
L