DENMARK SUPERLIGA
13.09.2026 16:00
Right to Dream Park

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Nordsjaelland Win 88%
Draw 5.2%
Aarhus Win 6.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Nordsjaelland1.79
Aarhus1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland
WWDLW
48 GF / 32 GA
Aarhus Aarhus
WLDWL
38 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
12
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
17
6.23
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 26 matches
Aarhus Aarhus 21 matches
FC Nordsjaelland Statistic Aarhus
13 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
7 Losses 8
48 Goals For 38
32 Goals Against 36
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
12 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 17
10 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 2
6.23 Shots On Goal 4.08
18.54 Total Shots 13.17
6 Corners 5.92
58.6% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Nordsjaelland's more proactive style and Aarhus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Aarhus. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Nordsjaelland expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Aarhus in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aarhus having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Nordsjaelland come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. FC Nordsjaelland arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Aarhus in 11 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC Nordsjaelland Analysis

FC Nordsjaelland approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 13 points after 6 outings. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 9:4, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Walker (2 goals), R. Norheim (1 goals), Ibrahim Adel (1 goals), with creative support from M. Brink (2 assists), R. Norheim (1 assists), Ibrahim Adel (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Aarhus Analysis

Aarhus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 4 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 9:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Serra (3 goals), Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad (2 goals), Frederik Emmery (1 goals), with creative support from Frederik Emmery (2 assists), S. Jørgensen (2 assists), M. Knudsen (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Nordsjaelland won 5 times, Aarhus won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:20 from FC Nordsjaelland's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3 / Aarhus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: FC Nordsjaelland wins 5, draws 4, Aarhus wins 6

Standings

Superliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 20:8 12 18
W W W L W
2 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
W D W D W
3 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
L W W W W
4 7 4 1 2 10:6 4 13
L W W W D
5 7 4 1 2 11:10 1 13
L L W W W
6 7 3 1 3 13:12 1 10
W L W W L
7 7 3 1 3 8:8 0 10
W W L L W
8 7 1 3 3 9:11 -2 6
W D L D L
9 7 1 3 3 7:11 -4 6
D D L L W
10 7 1 2 4 5:12 -7 5
L D D L L
11 7 0 4 3 9:13 -4 4
D L L D L
12 7 0 1 6 7:18 -11 1
L L L L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs