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GERMANY › 3. LIGA
24.10.2026 12:00
Audi Sportpark

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 17.8%
Draw 4.1%
MSV Duisburg Win 78.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Ingolstadt 041.35
MSV Duisburg1.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg
WLDWL
38 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
2.24
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
8
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
3.5
Shots on Goal
5.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 18 matches
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 17 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 Statistic MSV Duisburg
8 Wins 11
2 Draws 3
8 Losses 3
25 Goals For 38
27 Goals Against 22
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 2.24
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
8 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 5.1
12 Total Shots 10.7
3.7 Corners 3.8
40.4% Ball Possession 37.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by MSV Duisburg's more proactive style and FC Ingolstadt 04's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward MSV Duisburg. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and MSV Duisburg in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward MSV Duisburg having the stronger overall control. MSV Duisburg look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. MSV Duisburg carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 24 points while FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 13 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

With 11 points from 9 games and a place of 13, FC Ingolstadt 04 still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 12:15, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Lokotsch (1 goals), Max Plath (1 goals), O. Ugondu (1 goals), with creative support from L. Rosenlöcher (1 assists), K. Bennetts (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

MSV Duisburg Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 24 points from 9 games, MSV Duisburg bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 26:11, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 8 times, MSV Duisburg won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from FC Ingolstadt 04's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Ingolstadt 04 4-1-4-1 / MSV Duisburg 3-4-3
H2H summary: FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 8, draws 4, MSV Duisburg wins 3

Standings

3 Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 27:12 15 25
D W W W W
2 10 6 2 2 27:14 13 20
D D W W W
3 10 5 3 2 18:13 5 18
L W D D W
4 10 5 2 3 24:17 7 17
W L D W D
5 10 5 1 4 20:15 5 16
W L L W W
6 10 4 3 3 17:19 -2 15
L L W D W
7 10 4 2 4 17:18 -1 14
W W D D L
8 10 4 2 4 15:16 -1 14
W L L W L
9 10 4 2 4 13:15 -2 14
W W L L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
L W D L W
11 10 4 1 5 16:16 0 13
L L W W L
12 10 3 3 4 18:21 -3 12
L L D L D
13 10 3 3 4 12:15 -3 12
D W W L W
14 10 3 3 4 15:19 -4 12
L D D W D
15 10 3 3 4 12:18 -6 12
W D L L D
16 10 3 2 5 15:19 -4 11
W D L L W
17 10 3 2 5 12:17 -5 11
D W D L L
18 10 2 4 4 20:19 1 10
D D W D L
19 10 2 4 4 8:11 -3 10
L L D W L
20 10 1 3 6 13:23 -10 6
D D L L L
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation