23.08.2026 20:30
Estadio de la UNSA
Referee: M. Palomino
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
Alianza Lima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Esteban Pavez
Alianza Lima
33'
C. Bordacahar · Assist: N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
45'
E. Castillo · Assist: J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
J. Castillo ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
🟨
57'
Walter Tandazo
FBC Melgar
🔄
66'
G. Gentile ↔ Paolo Guerrero
Alianza Lima
🔄
69'
C. Bordacahar ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🟨
78'
Leonel González
FBC Melgar
🔄
79'
J. Velez ↔ J. Archimbaud
Alianza Lima
🔄
79'
E. Castillo ↔ C. Neira
Alianza Lima
🟨
82'
Juan Escobar
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
W. Tandazo ↔ M. Portillo
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
J. Vidales ↔ M. Zegarra
FBC Melgar
🔄
90+2'
N. Cabanillas ↔ L. Guzman
FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 50.2%
Draw 3.7%
Alianza Lima Win 46.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.28
Alianza Lima1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
46 GF / 31 GA
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WLDWL
43 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
0.65
18
BTTS Yes
12
16
Over 2.5
10
4.5
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 27 matches
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 26 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic Alianza Lima
13 Wins 16
7 Draws 7
7 Losses 3
46 Goals For 43
31 Goals Against 17
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 0.65
18 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 17
16 Over 2.5 10
10 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 4
4.5 Shots On Goal 5.17
14.55 Total Shots 14.92
5 Corners 4.25
54.8% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FBC Melgar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Lima in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Lima having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Lima. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Alianza Lima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 48 points while FBC Melgar sit 6 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar are currently 6 in the standings with 35 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 36:26 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jhonny Vidales (8 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (3 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Placed 1 with 48 points from 21 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 38:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 4 times, Alianza Lima won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:18 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 4, draws 4, Alianza Lima wins 6

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2