PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Referee: M. Palomino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.19
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.3%
1.36
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.19
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.61
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 50.2%
Draw 3.7%
Alianza Lima Win 46.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.28
Alianza Lima1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
46 GF / 31 GA
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WLDWL
43 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
0.65
18
BTTS Yes
12
16
Over 2.5
10
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 27 matches
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 26 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic Alianza Lima
13 Wins 16
7 Draws 7
7 Losses 3
46 Goals For 43
31 Goals Against 17
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 0.65
18 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 17
16 Over 2.5 10
10 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 11
4 Failed To Score 4
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.83
14.41 Total Shots 13.88
5 Corners 3.92
55% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FBC Melgar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Lima in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Lima having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Lima. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Alianza Lima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 48 points while FBC Melgar sit 6 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar are currently 6 in the standings with 35 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 36:26 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jhonny Vidales (8 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (3 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Placed 1 with 48 points from 21 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 38:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 4 times, Alianza Lima won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:17 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 4, draws 3, Alianza Lima wins 6
Last matches: FBC Melgar
15.08.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
2
4
L
02.08.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
1
W
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
Last matches: Alianza Lima
16.08.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
20.07.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cusco
8
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
ADT
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Universitario
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
10.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
1
0
W
H2H: FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima
10.03.26
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
3
1
L
01.11.25
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
2
2
D
28.06.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
29.09.24
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
29.09.23
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
19.05.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
2
1
W
13.11.22
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
2
0
L
09.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
22.09.22
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
2
0
L
12.03.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
22.09.21
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
1
0
L
03.07.21
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
02.11.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
4
L
16.09.20
H2H
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
Last matches: FBC Melgar
09.08.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
2
4
L
26.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
H2H at home: FBC Melgar
28.06.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
28.04.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
19.05.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
2
1
W
09.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
12.03.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
02.11.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
4
L
Last matches: Alianza Lima
09.08.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
1
1
D
26.07.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
ADT
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Universitario
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
05.02.26
CON
Alianza Lima
2 de Mayo
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
H2H away: Alianza Lima
28.06.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
1
W
28.04.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
L
19.05.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
2
1
L
09.11.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
L
12.03.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
0
L
02.11.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
0
4
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.87
Home 2.06
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.17
Draw 2.07
Home 2.53
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.92
Over 2.5 2.19
Over 2.75 2.52
Over 3.0 3.15
Under 1.5 3.01
Under 1.75 2.64
Under 2.0 2.27
Under 2.25 1.88
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.0 1.33
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 3.10
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.10
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.01
Draw 2.93
Home 2.07
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.05
Draw 1.85
Home 2.77
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.22
Draw 2.30
Home 2.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.25 1.87
Over 2.5 2.17
Over 2.75 2.49
Over 3.0 3.02
Over 3.25 3.29
Over 3.5 3.58
Over 3.75 4.49
Over 4.0 6.15
Over 4.25 6.55
Over 4.5 6.85
Over 5.5 16.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 6.25
Under 0.75 5.80
Under 1.0 5.30
Under 1.25 3.52
Under 1.5 2.74
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.13
Under 2.25 1.82
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 2.75 1.50
Under 3.0 1.31
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 3.25
Home 2.04
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.08
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.35
Home 2.43
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.46
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.87
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.48
Over 3.5 3.80
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.14
Under 2.25 1.80
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.5 1.21

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 6 1 39:13 26 51
W D W D W
2 22 12 5 5 31:30 1 41
L D W L W
3 22 11 6 5 32:22 10 39
W D L W W
4 23 11 6 6 30:21 9 39
W D W W W
5 22 11 5 6 39:26 13 38
W L D W W
6 22 11 4 7 37:28 9 37
D L W L L
7 23 11 3 9 34:35 -1 36
L W L W L
8 23 8 7 8 30:28 2 31
W D W L W
9 23 8 5 10 38:37 1 29
L W D W L
10 23 7 8 8 30:30 0 29
W L W L D
11 22 7 7 8 20:22 -2 28
D D W W L
12 23 7 5 11 19:23 -4 26
W W D L L
13 23 6 7 10 22:29 -7 25
W D L D D
14 23 6 6 11 31:47 -16 24
W L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 28:40 -12 23
L L D W W
16 23 5 7 11 26:33 -7 22
L D D L L
17 23 5 6 12 33:42 -9 21
L L W L L
18 23 4 8 11 25:38 -13 15
L L D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2