Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
96.3%
|
1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.5%
|
1.91 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
2.19 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.61 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.25 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.00 |
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
FBC Melgar
27 matches
Alianza Lima
26 matches
| FBC Melgar | Statistic | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wins | 16 |
| 7 | Draws | 7 |
| 7 | Losses | 3 |
| 46 | Goals For | 43 |
| 31 | Goals Against | 17 |
| 1.7 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.65 |
| 18 | BTTS Yes | 12 |
| 23 | Over 1.5 | 17 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 10 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 11 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.5 | Shots On Goal | 4.83 |
| 14.41 | Total Shots | 13.88 |
| 5 | Corners | 3.92 |
| 55% | Ball Possession | 51.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FBC Melgar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Lima in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Lima having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Lima. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Alianza Lima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 48 points while FBC Melgar sit 6 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.
FBC Melgar are currently 6 in the standings with 35 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 36:26 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jhonny Vidales (8 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (3 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Placed 1 with 48 points from 21 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 38:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 4 times, Alianza Lima won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:17 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
Universitario
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
FBC Melgar
Cusco
FBC Melgar
ADT
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Cali
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Alianza Lima
ADT
Alianza Lima
Universitario
Alianza Lima
Juan Pablo II College
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
Universitario
FBC Melgar
Cusco
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Macara
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
ADT
Alianza Lima
Universitario
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
2 de Mayo
Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alianza Lima
Away
|
22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39:13 | 26 | 51 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
| 2 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 31:30 | 1 | 41 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32:22 | 10 | 39 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30:21 | 9 | 39 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 5 |
FBC Melgar
Home
|
22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
| 6 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37:28 | 9 | 37 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 7 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34:35 | -1 | 36 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30:28 | 2 | 31 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 29 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30:30 | 0 | 29 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 28 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19:23 | -4 | 26 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 25 |
W
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 31:47 | -16 | 24 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 28:40 | -12 | 23 |
L
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 16 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26:33 | -7 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 33:42 | -9 | 21 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25:38 | -13 | 15 |
L
L
D
L
D
|