Login Register
RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.10.2026 12:15
Fakel Stadium
Referee: Andrey Prokopov

Fakel vs Lokomotiv Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.56
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.84
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.2%
1.56 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.84 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.69 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
81.5%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.55 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
5.80 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fakel Win 40.4%
Draw 21.9%
Lokomotiv Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fakel1.12
Lokomotiv1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fakel Fakel
WWDLW
26 GF / 26 GA
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
WLDWL
49 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
12
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
11
2.22
Shots on Goal
2.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fakel Fakel 21 matches
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 27 matches
Fakel Statistic Lokomotiv
5 Wins 13
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 7
26 Goals For 49
26 Goals Against 25
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
12 BTTS Yes 12
12 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 4
2.22 Shots On Goal 2.89
9.33 Total Shots 12.67
4.33 Corners 3.11
44.9% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lokomotiv. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fakel expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lokomotiv in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lokomotiv having the stronger overall control.

Fakel Analysis

Fakel sit 16 with 3 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 6:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Sutormin (1 goals), V. Yakimov (1 goals), R. Netfullin (1 goals), with creative support from A. Sutormin (1 assists), N. Giorgobiani (1 assists), B. Pusi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Analysis

Lokomotiv sit 14 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Siljanov (1 goals), Z. Bakaev (1 goals), Aleksey Batrakov (1 goals), with creative support from A. Siljanov (1 assists), Z. Bakaev (1 assists), Aleksey Batrakov (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Fakel won 1 times, Lokomotiv won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:10 from Fakel's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.2%)
Predicted formations: Fakel 3-4-3 / Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Fakel 1, Lokomotiv 2
H2H summary: Fakel wins 1, draws 0, Lokomotiv wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16
Fakel Home
9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL